000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060851
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1005 UTC FRI JUN 06 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0815 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 7N78W 9N85W TO 1007 MB LOW NEAR 
12N100W 10N116W 11N112W 10N120W TO 1009 MB LOW NEAR 11N127W TO 
8N131W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 8N131W TO 6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ 
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM ALONG COAST OF COLOMBIA S OF 
6N AND WITHIN 45 NM ALONG COAST OF PANAMA BETWEEN 79W AND 80.5W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N TO 7N 
BETWEEN 91W AND 94W AND WITHIN 150 NM NE OF THE 1007 MB LOW. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF MONSOON 
TROUGH BETWEEN 102 AND 107W AND WITHIN 120 NM OF 1009 MB LOW.

...DISCUSSION...                                                
FAIRLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXIST NORTH OF THE ITCZ REGION WEST 
OF 105W AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A FAIRLY BROAD MID TO UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE AREA AND ANCHORED NEAR 23N117W. THIS 
RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR PROVIDING GENERAL 
STABILITY TO CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE WITH TRADE WINDS 
REMAINING 20 KT OR LESS. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO 
PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTH FORECAST WATERS THROUGH THE 48 HOURS 
WITH ONLY A SMALL AREA OF NW WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 25 KT 
OCCURRING LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO THROUGH EARLY SAT OFF THE 
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA DUE TO A STRENGTHENED PRESSURE GRADIENT 
AND UNRELATED NORTHERLY SWELL. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE IS 
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE WATERS ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH 
CENTERED WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR 43N137W.

FARTHER EAST...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY COVERING THE AREA BETWEEN THE MONSOON TROUGH AND MEXICO 
ANCHORED NEAR 14N95W AND IS EMBEDDED WITH DEEP MOISTURE. 
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION DOT THE AREA N OF 
12N TO OVER MEXICO BETWEEN 91W AND 96W. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING 
SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM ACROSS MEXICO AND THE SURFACE LOW IN 
THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF 
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT APPEAR LIKELY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 
HOWEVER...WITH THE SURFACE LOW IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO...THE 
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION...FLASH FLOODING...AND MUD 
SLIDES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... 
GUATEMALA...EL SALVADOR...AND EASTERN HONDURAS DURING THE NEXT 
FEW DAYS.

$$
PAW