000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060234
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
0405 UTC FRI JUN 06 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0215 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 09N78W TO 08N90W TO 11N99W TO 1006 
MB LOW PRES NEAR 11N101W TO 09N106W TO 09N118W TO 1007 MB LOW 
PRES NEAR 11N127W TO 08N130W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE 
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N130W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN 78W AND 
82W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF A LINE FROM 09N84W TO 04N92W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 111W AND 117W...AND FROM 09N TO 13N 
BETWEEN 123W AND 129W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                
FAIRLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXIST NORTH OF THE ITCZ REGION WEST 
OF 105W AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A FAIRLY BROAD MIDDLE TO 
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 23N119W. 
OVERALL...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS IN VERY DRY AND STABLE 
AIR PROVIDING GENERAL STABILITY TO CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE 
WITH TRADES REMAINING 20 KT OR LESS AT THIS TIME. MODERATE TO 
FRESH TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN 
FORECAST WATERS THROUGH THE 48 HOUR PERIOD WITH ONLY A SMALL 
AREA OF NW WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 25 KT OCCURRING FRIDAY 
OFF THE COAST OF CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA DUE TO A STRENGTHENED 
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND UNRELATED NORTHERLY SWELL REMAINING N OF 
28N BETWEEN 123W AND 137W ON SATURDAY BUILDING SEAS TO 9 FT. 
OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN HOLD OVER 
THE WATERS ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED WELL N-NW OF THE 
AREA NEAR 44N137W.

FARTHER EAST...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS 
NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR 14N97W THAT INVOLVES ITSELF 
WITH MORE MOISTURE THAN ITS COUNTERPART TO THE WEST MENTIONED 
ABOVE. IN GENERAL...CONDITIONS ARE MOSTLY TRANQUIL ACROSS THE 
AREA E OF 105 AS WELL...HOWEVER A MORE DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT IS 
IN PLACE GENERATING AREAS OF ISOLATED AND WIDELY SCATTERED 
CONVECTION N OF 03N E OF 105W THAT INCLUDE THE MONSOON TROUGH 
REGION AND AREAS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA THIS EVENING. 
OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT APPEAR 
LIKELY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...WITH THE PRESENCE 
OF AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF 
OF MEXICO...THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION...FLASH 
FLOODING...AND MUD SLIDES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF 
SOUTHERN MEXICO...GUATEMALA...EL SALVADOR...AND EASTERN HONDURAS 
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

$$ 
HUFFMAN