000
AXPZ20 KNHC 052130
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
2205 UTC THU JUN 05 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 07N78W TO 05N81W TO 07N85W TO 06N90W 
TO 08N95W TO 12N100W TO 1006 MB LOW PRES NEAR 11N101W TO 08N104W 
TO 10N110W TO 09N115W TO 11N125W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE 
ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N130W TO 07N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 09N BETWEEN 82W AND 90W...FROM 11N TO 
15N BETWEEN 95W AND 100W...FROM 03N TO 09N BETWEEN 97W AND 
103W...FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 110W AND 126W...AND FROM 11N TO 
13N BETWEEN 126W AND 130W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                
FAIRLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXIST NORTH OF THE ITCZ REGION WEST 
OF 105W AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A FAIRLY BROAD MIDDLE TO 
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 22N119W. 
OVERALL...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS IN VERY DRY AND STABLE 
AIR PROVIDING GENERAL STABILITY TO CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE 
WITH TRADES REMAINING 20 KT OR LESS AT THIS TIME. MODERATE TO 
FRESH TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN 
FORECAST WATERS THROUGH THE 48 HOUR PERIOD WITH ONLY A SMALL 
AREA OF NW WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 25 KT OCCURRING FRIDAY 
OFF THE COAST OF CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA DUE TO A STRENGTHENED 
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND UNRELATED NORTHERLY SWELL REMAINING N OF 
28N BETWEEN 123W AND 136W ON SATURDAY BUILDING SEAS TO 9 FT. 
OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN HOLD OVER 
THE WATERS ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED WELL N-NW OF THE 
AREA NEAR 44N137W.

FARTHER EAST...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS 
NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR 14N96W THAT INVOLVES ITSELF 
WITH MORE MOISTURE THAN ITS COUNTERPART TO THE WEST MENTIONED 
ABOVE. IN GENERAL...CONDITIONS ARE MOSTLY TRANQUIL ACROSS THE 
AREA E OF 105 AS WELL...HOWEVER A MORE DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT IS 
IN PLACE GENERATING AREAS OF ISOLATED AND WIDELY SCATTERED 
CONVECTION N OF 01N E OF 105W THAT INCLUDE THE MONSOON TROUGH 
REGION AND AREAS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA THIS EVENING. WITH THE 
DEMISE OF BORIS...NO SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT 
APPEAR LIKELY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...WITH THE 
PRESENCE OF AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE 
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY 
PRECIPITATION...FLASH FLOODING...AND MUD SLIDES ARE POSSIBLE 
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AND COASTAL CENTRAL AMERICA 
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

$$ 
HUFFMAN