000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051525
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1605 UTC THU JUN 05 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1445 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 05N81W TO 07N85W TO A 
1007 MB LOW PRES NEAR 12N101W TO 09N115W TO 12N125W. THE ITCZ 
AXIS CONTINUES FROM 12N125W TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 
81W AND 87W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 60 NM E OF A LINE FROM 12N90W TO 10N88W TO 7.5N86W. 

...DISCUSSION...     

A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED WELL NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA NEAR 43N138W EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE 
REGION THROUGH 30N130W TO THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE 
NEAR 28N115W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS SURFACE RIDGE 
AND A TROUGH ALONG THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS TIGHT ENOUGH TO 
SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS OFF THE COAST OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA NORTE...PARTICULARLY N OF 25N BETWEEN 115W AND 119W 
WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE 
OF THESE WINDS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH 
LATE TODAY. IN ADDITION...THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE 
AND LOWER PRESSURE ALONG THE ITCZ IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH 
BREEZE TRADE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.  
LOOKING AHEAD...THE WINDS NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL DIMINISH 
THROUGH SATURDAY BUT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY NORTHERLY 10-11 SECOND 
PERIOD SWELL TO 9 FT PUSHING SOUTH OF 30N AND COVERING THE AREA 
N OF 26N W OF 120W BY SAT NIGHT. 

A WEAK LOW PRES OF 1006 MB REMAINS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON 
TROUGH NEAR 12N101W. THIS WAS SAMPLED BY AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS 
THAT INDICATED LIGHT WINDS AROUND THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION.  A 
WELL DEFINED SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW.  
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW IT MOVING LITTLE AND DISSIPATING THROUGH THE 
NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 14N126W TO 
07N129W USING NIGHT CHANNEL VIS IMAGERY AND AN EARLIER 
SCATTEROMETER PASS. THE TROUGH COINCIDES WITH A BULGE OF 
MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TPW ANIMATION. A SMALL CLUSTER OF 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR 12N127W. 
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N112W TO 19N116W. THE EDGE 
OF AN ASCAT PASS SHOWED THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS 
TROUGH FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE 
OF DAYS. 

SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE WILL REACH THE 
WATERS S OF THE EQUATOR AND W OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS BY SAT 
RAISING SEAS UP TO 8-9 FT.  
 
WITH THE DEMISE OF BORIS...NO SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT 
APPEARS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. CURRENTLY... 
ATTENTION REMAINS FOCUSED ON A LOW PRES LOCATED OVER THE 
SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. SOME FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS 
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO IF THE LOW REMAINS 
OFFSHORE OF EASTERN MEXICO. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS THE POTENTIAL 
TO PRODUCE EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH 
FLOOD AND MUD SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO  
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
 
$$ 
GR