000
AXPZ20 KNHC 041531
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1605 UTC WED JUN 04 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1445 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BORIS IS INLAND OVER SE MEXICO NEAR 16.3N 
94.0W AT 04/1500 UTC MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE N AT 2 KT. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE 
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC N OF 15N BETWEEN 93.5W AND 95.5W. THE MEXICAN 
WEATHER SERVICE REPORTED THAT THE CITY OF TONALA ON THE COAST OF 
CHIAPAS RECORDED 12.5 INCHES...318 MM...OF STORM-TOTAL RAINFALL. 
IN ADDITION...LOS TUXTLAS VERACRUZ REPORTED 6.2 INCHES...155.6 
MM AND SAN PEDRO TABASCO RECEIVED 4.5 INCHES...113.3 MM. BORIS 
COULD STILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES 
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES OVER THE MEXICAN STATES 
OF OAXACA...CHIAPAS...VERACRUZ AND TABASCO. THESE RAINS WILL 
BRING ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS TO AS MUCH AS 20 INCHES... 
ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO 
RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. BORIS 
SHOULD DISSIPATE LATER TODAY OVER THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. 
PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 1008 MB LOW PRES NEAR 
10.5N88W TO 11N93W...THEN RESUMES W OF SECOND 1008 MB LOW PRES 
LOCATED NEAR 11N100W TO 10N120W. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM 
10N120W TO BEYOND 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04N TO 08N E OF 80W AND FROM 09N TO 13N 
BETWEEN 86W AND 90W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 
NM NW QUADRANT OF LOW CENTER NEAR 11N100W.

...DISCUSSION...     

A 1030 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA 
EXTENDS A RIDGE S-SE INTO THE REGION THROUGH 32N131W TO COAST OF 
BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS 
SURFACE RIDGE AND THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER NW MEXICO IS TIGHT 
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS OFF THE COAST OF 
BAJA CALIFORNIA...PARTICULARLY N OF 24N W OF 120W WITH SEAS TO 8 
FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 
THU MORNING. MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE NOTED ON THE SOUTHERN 
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. 

THE LEADING EDGE OF CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELLS WITH PERIODS AT 18-
20 SECONDS IS CURRENTLY REACHING THE COASTLINE OF MEXICO E OF 
112W...INCLUDING THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA 
OR SEA OF CORTEZ AND CENTRAL AMERICA. SEAS OF TO 8 FT ASSOCIATED 
WITH THESE SWELLS ARE CURRENTLY REACHING TO 05N BETWEEN 81W AND 
86W. THESE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT THROUGH TODAY. 

A RECENT ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED ANOTHER AREA OF SEAS TO 9 FT  
EXTENDING FROM 07N TO 12N BETWEEN 100W AND 105W. THIS IS DUE IN 
PART TO SW SWELL...BUT COULD BE ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW 
CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11N100W. THIS SWELL WILL DECAY BELOW 8 FT 
THROUGH TODAY AS WELL. SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL FROM THE SOUTHERN 
HEMISPHERE IS ALSO AFFECTING THE FAR SOUTH WATERS W OF THE 
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS WITH SEAS TO 8 FT S OF A LINE FROM 03.4S90W TO 
01S92W TO 01SN97W TO 03.4S105W. THESE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY 
SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT THROUGH TONIGHT.
 
$$ 
GR