000
AXPZ20 KNHC 041004
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1005 UTC WED JUN 04 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0915 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BORIS IS CENTERED NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO 
AT 16.2N 93.9W AT 04/0900 UTC MOVING N AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 
SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS NOTED N OF 15N BETWEEN 96W AND 98W...AS WELL AS 
INLAND OVER COASTAL PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CHIAPAS STATE IN 
SOUTHERN MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL 
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 
10 INCHES OVER THE MEXICAN STATES OF OAXACA AND CHIAPAS. THESE 
ADDITIONAL RAINS WILL BRING ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS TO AS 
MUCH AS 20 INCHES... ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE 
RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND 
MUD SLIDES. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 08N82W TO 
11N97W...THEN RESUMES NEAR 09N103W TO 11N110 TO 08N125W. THE 
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N125W TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA 
FROM 10N TO 12N E OF 88W.

...DISCUSSION...     

A 1032 MB HIGH IS CENTERED WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH A 
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING S-SE INTO THE REGION THROUGH 32N132W TO 
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN 
THIS SURFACE RIDGE AND THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER NW MEXICO IS 
TIGHT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS OFF THE 
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE 
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. 

THE LEADING EDGE OF CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELLS WITH PERIODS AT 17-
18 SECONDS IS CURRENTLY REACHING THE COASTLINE OF SOUTHERN 
MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA. SEAS OF TO 8 FT ASSOCIATED WITH 
THESE SWELLS ARE CURRENTLY REACHING TO 04N BETWEEN 82W AND 87W. 
THESE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT THROUGH TODAY. 

A RECENT ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED ANOTHER AREA OF SEAS TO 8 FT 
NOTED IN WAVE MODEL INITIALIZATIONS EXTENDING FROM 07N TO 12N 
BETWEEN 100W AND 105W. THIS IS DUE IN PART TO SW SWELL...BUT 
ALSO EARLIER WESTERLY WINDS ACTIVE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF 
WHAT WOULD BECOME BORIS. THIS SWELL WILL DECAY BELOW 8 FT 
THROUGH TODAY AS WELL.
 
$$ 
CHRISTENSEN