000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031522
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1605 UTC TUE JUN 03 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E IS CENTERED NEAR 14.6N 94.3W AT 
03/1500 UTC MOVING N OR 360 DEG AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 
KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
IS WITHIN 150 NM IN THE NE SEMICIRCLE. NUMEROUS MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG IS FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 95W AND 97W. THE 
DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM BY THIS 
EVENING. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION 
SHOULD BE NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO...IN THE AREA OF THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC BY EARLY WEDNESDAY...THEN INLAND BY LATE WED. THE 
MAIN THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE IS VERY HEAVY 
RAINS...PARTICULARLY NEAR REGIONS OF HIGH TERRAIN. THIS SHOULD 
RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT AND DANGEROUS FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES. SEE 
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/ 
WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 11N88W...THEN RESUMES 
FROM 11N115W TO 09N118W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 09N118W TO 
BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
NOTED WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH BETWEEN 86W AND 89W. 
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 09N BETWEEN 83W AND 87W.

...DISCUSSION...     

A 1032 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA 
NEAR 46N142W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE 
REGION THROUGH 32N132W TO 24N120W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN 
THE RIDGE AND A 1003 MB LOW PRES LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA NEAR 26.5N110W IS TIGHT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FRESH TO 
LOCALLY STRONG WINDS N OF 28N E OF 121W WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. THESE 
MARINE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THU MORNING. 
IN ADDITION...A TIGHTENING GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER 
PRES ALONG THE ITCZ IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG 
TRADE WINDS FROM 08N TO 14N W OF 135W AS NOTED IN AN EARLIER 
ASCAT PASS. SEAS ARE 8-9 FT IN THIS SAME AREA. THESE SEAS ARE 
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE WITH TRADES DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY 
TO MODERATE TO FRESH BY WED. 

THE LEADING EDGE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL TRAIN WITH PERIODS AT 
19-21 SECONDS IS CURRENTLY REACHING THE COASTLINE OF SOUTHERN 
MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA...INCLUDING ALSO THE GULF OF PANAMA 
AND THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. SEAS OF 8-9 FT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS 
SWELL TRAIN ARE CURRENTLY REACHING ALL THE WAY TO 06N E OF 100W. 
SEAS ARE FORECAST TO DECAY TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY LATE WED.

$$ 
GR