000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030947
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1005 UTC TUE JUN 03 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0915 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E IS CENTERED NEAR 14.4N 94.3W AT 
03/0900 UTC MOVING NNW OR 350 DEG AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 
KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM IN THE NE SEMICIRCLE. THE DEPRESSION 
IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM BY THIS AFTERNOON 
THEN MOVE INLAND LATE TODAY. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 11N88W...THEN 
CONTINUES FROM 11N100W TO 12N115W TO 11N120W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 
11N120W TO BEYOND 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
OBSERVED WITHIN 30 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 80W AND 
90W. 

...DISCUSSION...     

STATIONARY 1034 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED WELL N OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 46N142W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING 
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION THROUGH 32N135W TO 17N125W. THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE W CENTRAL WATERS BETWEEN THE RIDGE 
AND A SURFACE TROUGH W OF 140W IS TIGHT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FRESH 
TRADES FROM 08N TO 15N W OF 135W AS NOTED IN A 06 UTC ASCAT 
SATELLITE PASS. SEAS ARE 8-9 FT IN NE SWELL ACROSS THIS SAME 
AREA. THESE SEAS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE WITH TRADES 
DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY TO MODERATE TO FRESH TUE NIGHT.

A TIGHTENING GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOW PRES OVER NW 
MEXICO IS ALLOWING AN AREA OF FRESH NW TO N WINDS ALONG THE 
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 
20 TO 25 KT BY EARLY WED WITH SEAS TO 8 FT BEFORE DIMINISHING 
LATER ON WED.

THE LEADING EDGE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL TRAIN WITH PERIODS AT 
19-21 SECONDS REACHES MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PACIFIC COAST OF 
COLOMBIA AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTLINE OF SOUTHERN 
MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA LATE TONIGHT. SEAS OF 8-9 FT 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SWELL TRAIN ARE CURRENTLY REACHING ALL THE 
WAY TO 02N E OF 100W. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO DECAY TO LESS THAN 8 
FT BY 24 HOURS.

$$ 
CHRISTENSEN