000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030304
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
0405 UTC TUE JUN 03 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0215 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E IS CENTERED NEAR 13.8N 94.2W AT 
03/0300 UTC MOVING NNW OR 330 DEG AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 
KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM IN THE NE SEMICIRCLE AND S QUADRANT 
AND WITHIN 240 NM IN THE SW QUADRANT. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST 
TO STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM BY EARLY TUE MORNING WITH SLOW 
STRENGTHENING THEREAFTER. A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED 
THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR  MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                             

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED N OF 02N ALONG 81W MOVING   WESTWARD 
AROUND 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
IS DISPLACED AHEAD OF THE WAVE FROM 04N TO 09N BETWEEN 85W AND 
87W. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO LOSE DEFINITION AS IT APPROACHES 
THE OUTER CIRCULATION/INFLUENCES OF T.D. TWO-E.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 00N100W TO 00N110W TO 
06N126W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N126W TO BEYOND 05N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 08N BETWEEN 99W AND 
103W.

...DISCUSSION...     

THE POST-TROPICAL REMNANTS OF AMANDA ARE ANALYZED AS A TROUGH 
FROM 17N112W TO 13N113W. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS NEAR 
THIS FEATURE. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER 
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. 

STATIONARY 1034 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED WELL N OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 47N142W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING 
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION THROUGH 32N134W TO 22N115W. THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE W CENTRAL WATERS BETWEEN THE RIDGE 
AND A SURFACE TROUGH W OF 140W IS TIGHT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FRESH 
TRADES FROM 08N TO 15N W OF 136W. SEAS ARE 8-9 FT IN NE SWELL 
ACROSS THIS SAME AREA. THESE SEAS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY 
SUBSIDE WITH TRADES DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY TO MODERATE TO FRESH 
TUE NIGHT.

THE LEADING EDGE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL TRAIN WITH PERIODS AT 
19-21 SECONDS HAS REACHED ALONG THE COAST OF ECUADOR AND IS NOW  
MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA...EXPECTED 
TO REACH THE COASTLINE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA 
LATE TONIGHT. SEAS OF 8-9 FT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SWELL TRAIN 
ARE CURRENTLY REACHING ALL THE WAY TO 04N NEAR 85W WILL 
PROPAGATE NE TO 06N NEAR 82W BY 24 HOURS. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO 
DECAY TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY 42-48 HOURS.

$$ 
LEWITSKY