000
AXPZ20 KNHC 022115
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
2205 UTC MON JUN 02 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

UPGRADED TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E IS CENTERED NEAR 13.1N 94.1W 
AT 02/2100 UTC MOVING NNW OR 330 DEG AT 3 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 25 KT WITH GUSTS 
TO 35 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 180 NM IN THE NE SEMICIRCLE. ALSO SCATTERED MODERATE AND 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM IN THE S 
SEMICIRCLE. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO A 
TROPICAL STORM BY 24 HOURS...WITH VERY SLOW STRENGTHENING 
THEREAFTER. A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE  
NEXT 5 DAYS. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                             

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED N OF 03N ALONG 79W MOVING   
WESTWARD AROUND 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 05N E OF 83W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N100W TO 06N126W. THE 
ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N126W TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 06N 
BETWEEN 86W AND 89W...WITHIN 90 NM SE OF A LINE FROM 07N94W TO 
05N98W...AND ALSO WITHIN 180 NM SE OF AXIS BETWEEN 100W AND 103W.

IN ADDITION...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM N 
OF A LINE FROM 15N137W TO 13N140W AHEAD OF A MID-UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH W OF THE AREA NEAR 150W AND AROUND AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE 
LOCATED AT 09N134W.

...DISCUSSION...     

THE POST-TROPICAL REMNANTS OF AMANDA WAS ANALYZED AS A TROUGH 
FROM 18N112W TO 14N113W. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS NEAR 
THE CENTER. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER 
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. 

STATIONARY 1034 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED WELL N OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 47N143W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING 
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION THROUGH 32N136W TO 28N130W TO 
21N113W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE W CENTRAL WATERS 
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A SURFACE TROUGH W OF 140W IS TIGHT ENOUGH 
TO SUPPORT FRESH TRADES FROM 08N TO 16N W OF 135W. ALTIMETER 
PASSES FROM THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS SHOW SEAS AT 8-9 FT IN NE 
SWELL ACROSS THIS SAME AREA. SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AS 
THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE W AWAY FROM 140W AND THE 
AREA OF FRESH TRADE WINDS SHRINKS.

THE LEADING EDGE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL TRAIN WITH PERIODS AT 
19-21 SECONDS HAS REACHED ALONG THE COAST OF ECUADOR AND MOVING 
TOWARD THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA...EXPECTED TO REACH THE 
COASTLINE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA LATE TONIGHT. 
SEAS OF 8-9 FT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SWELL TRAIN ARE CURRENTLY 
REACHING TO 01N/02N E OF 110W...AND WILL PROPAGATE NE TO 05N 
NEAR 81W BY 24 HOURS. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO DECAY TO LESS THAN 8 
FT BY 48 HOURS.

$$ 
LEWITSKY