000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021522
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1605 UTC MON JUN 02 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1003 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM WAS ANALYZED NEAR 12N94W. ASCAT PASSES 
FROM 0406 UTC AND 0312 UTC SHOW A CLOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
AND SHIP A8OF7 REPORTED 15 KT E WINDS AND 1003 MB NEAR 13N94W 
JUST N OF THE CENTER. THESE ASCAT PASSES SHOW A FRESH TO STRONG 
BREEZE WAS WITHIN 75 NM SE QUADRANT OF THE CENTER WHILE A FRESH 
TO STRONG BREEZE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGER CIRCULATION CAN ALSO 
BE FOUND WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AS 
WELL AS S OF THE CENTER FROM 09N-11N BETWEEN 94W AND 96W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 120 NM E 
SEMICIRCLE WITH SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION ELSEWHERE WITHIN 210 NM...EXCEPT 0 NM W QUADRANT. 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF 
THIS LOW AS IT DRIFTS GENERALLY NW-N OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 
THIS LOW HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION THROUGH 
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVE...                                             
A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 77W N OF 03N...MOVING 
WESTWARD AROUND 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST 
OF COLOMBIA INTO THE PACIFIC THIS MORNING. SCATTERED MODERATE 
WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS FOUND WITHIN 240 NM W OF THE 
WAVE AXIS N OF 05N...INCLUDING OVER MUCH OF PANAMA. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 10N86W TO 12N90W TO 
LOW PRES NEAR 12N94W THEN CONTINUES FROM 11N114W TO 07N120W TO 
06N126W. THE ITCZ WAS ANALYZED FROM 06N126W TO 05N140W. 
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED NEAR THE AXIS IS 
DESCRIBED WITH THE LOW PRES IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION AND 
IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE. 

...DISCUSSION...     

THE POST-TROPICAL REMNANTS OF AMANDA WAS ANALYZED AS A TROUGH 
FROM 18N112W TO 13N114W. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS NEAR 
THE CENTER. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER 
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

1033 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 
47N143W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE 
REGION THROUGH 32N133W TO 28N130W TO 26N115W. THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT ACROSS THE W CENTRAL WATERS BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A 
SURFACE TROUGH W OF 140W IS TIGHT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FRESH TRADES 
FROM 11N TO 19N W OF 130W. ALTIMETER PASSES FROM THE LAST 6 
HOURS SHOW SEAS AT 8-9 FT IN NE SWELL ACROSS THIS SAME AREA. 
SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE TO 
THE W AWAY FROM 140W AND THE AREA OF FRESH TRADE WINDS SHRINKS.

THE LEADING EDGE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL TRAIN WITH PERIODS 
AROUND 20 SECONDS HAS LIFTED N OF THE EQUATOR AND WILL REACH THE 
COASTLINE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA TONIGHT WITH 
SEA HEIGHTS AROUND 7 TO 8 FT.  

$$ 
SCHAUER