000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021000
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1005 UTC MON JUN 02 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0915 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1004 MB LOW PRES AREA IS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N93.5W OR A FEW HUNDRED 
NAUTICAL MILES S-SE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE 
AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM NE SEMICIRCLE 
AND 120 NM SW SEMICIRCLE. THIS CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AND 
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR 
DEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW DRIFTS GENERALLY NW-N OVER THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS. THE LOW HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION 
THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 11N85W TO THE LOW PRES NEAR 
12N94W...THEN CONTINUES TO 14N98W WHERE IT BREAKS...THEN RESUMES 
FROM A 1008 LOW PRES NEAR 16N113W TO 08N119W. THE ITCZ AXIS 
EXTENDS FROM 08N119W TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 90W 
AND 102W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO 
NOTED IN THE GULF OF PANAMA N OF 04N E OF 80W.

...DISCUSSION...     

THE POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW OF AMANDA WAS ANALYZED NEAR 
16N113W AT 1008 MB. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS NEAR THE 
CENTER. AN EVENING ASCAT SATELLITE PASS INDICATED WINDS WERE 
MAINLY 10 TO 15 KT ON THE NW SIDE OF THE LOW. SEAS ARE ESTIMATED 
TO BE IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE. THIS LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO OPEN 
INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.
 
1034 MB HIGH PRES IS WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH A RIDGE 
AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION THROUGH 32N140W TO 
20N115W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE W CENTRAL WATERS 
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A SURFACE TROUGH W OF 140W IS TIGHT ENOUGH 
TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES FROM 08N TO 16N W OF 135W. 
SEAS AT 8-9 FT ARE ACROSS THIS SAME AREA AS SAMPLED BY A RECENT 
ALTIMETER PASS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATER TODAY AS THE TROUGH 
CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE W AWAY FROM 140W. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 
JUST AT OR ABOVE 8 FT FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS NEAR 140W 
UNDER PERSISTENT FRESH TRADE WINDS...THEN ARE FORECAST TO 
SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY TUE EVENING AS TRADES DIMINISH TO 
MODERATE TO FRESH.

THE LEADING EDGE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL TRAIN WITH PERIODS AT 
19-21 SECONDS HAS LIFTED N OF THE EQUATOR AND WILL REACH THE 
COASTLINE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA TONIGHT WITH 
SEA HEIGHTS AROUND 7 TO 8 FT.  

$$ 
CHRISTENSEN