000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020233
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
0405 UTC MON JUN 02 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0215 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1007 MB LOW PRES AREA IS LOCATED NEAR 12N94W OR A FEW HUNDRED 
NAUTICAL MILES S-SE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE 
AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM IN THE SW 
QUADRANT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME 
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW DRIFTS GENERALLY NW-N OVER 
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LOW HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE 
FORMATION THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 12N86W TO LOW PRES NEAR 
12N94W TO 13N99W...THEN RESUMES FROM LOW PRES NEAR 16N113W TO 
08N119W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N119W TO 05N130W TO BEYOND 
04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 94W AND 97W...AND ALSO FROM 07N TO 14N 
BETWEEN 97W AND 102W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N 
TO 13N W OF 138W.

ALSO...SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 180 NM SE OF A LINE FROM 08N82W TO 05N87W ASSOCIATED WITH 
A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING W.

...DISCUSSION...     

POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW AMANDA WAS ANALYZED NEAR 16N113W AT 
1008 MB. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS NEAR THE CENTER. 
AFTERNOON ASCAT AND ASCAT-B PASSES INDICATED WINDS WERE MAINLY 
10 TO 15 KT ON THE NW SIDE OF THE LOW AND SEAS ARE IN THE 5-7 FT 
RANGE. THIS LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO OPEN INTO AN ELONGATED 
TROUGH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.
 
1034 MB HIGH PRES IS WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 49N143W 
WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION 
THROUGH 32N136W TO 22N113W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE W 
CENTRAL WATERS BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A SURFACE TROUGH W OF 140W 
IS TIGHT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES FROM 13N TO 
19N W OF 136W AS INDICATED BY A 1938 UTC ASCAT PASS. SEAS AT 8-9 
FT ARE ACROSS THIS SAME AREA AS SAMPLED BY A RECENT ALTIMETER 
PASS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH MON AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE 
TO THE W AWAY FROM 140W. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN JUST AT OR ABOVE 8 
FT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS NEAR 140W UNDER PERSISTENT FRESH TRADE 
WINDS...THEN ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY TUE 
EVENING AS TRADES DIMINISH TO MODERATE TO FRESH.

THE LEADING EDGE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL TRAIN WITH PERIODS AT 
19-21 SECONDS HAS LIFTED N OF THE EQUATOR AND WILL REACH THE 
COASTLINES S AND E OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC OVERNIGHT MON 
NIGHT. SEAS AT 8-9 FT ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD OFFSHORE OF ECUADOR 
TONIGHT THROUGH THU AFTERNOON.

$$ 
LEWITSKY