000
AXPZ20 KNHC 012123
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
2205 UTC SUN JUN 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1007 MB LOW PRES AREA IS LOCATED NEAR 12N94W OR ABOUT 300 
NAUTICAL MILES S-SE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE 
AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM IN THE E 
SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME 
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW DRIFTS GENERALLY NORTHWARD 
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LOW HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL 
CYCLONE FORMATION THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N77W TO LOW PRES NEAR 
12N94W TO 16N100W...THEN RESUMES FROM 10N109W TO 07N120W. THE 
ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N120W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM N OF A 
LINE FROM 04N78W TO 01N85W...WITHIN 240 NM SW OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 96W AND 101W...AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS W OF 
138W.

...DISCUSSION...     

POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW AMANDA WAS ANALYZED NEAR 16N112W AT 
1007 MB. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS NEAR THE CENTER. 
RECENT ASCAT AND ASCAT-B PASSES INDICATED WINDS WERE MAINLY 10 
TO 15 KT ON THE NW SIDE OF THE LOW AND SEAS ARE IN THE 5-7 FT 
RANGE. THIS LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO OPEN INTO AN ELONGATED 
TROUGH OVER THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS.
 
1035 MB HIGH PRES IS WELL NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 
48N143W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE 
REGION THROUGH 32N132W TO 20N116W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS 
THE W CENTRAL WATERS BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A SURFACE TROUGH NOW 
W OF 140W FROM 13N141W TO 05N145W IS TIGHT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A 
FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE FROM 12N TO 17N W OF 135W. RESULTANT SEAS 
AT 8-10 FT ARE ACROSS THIS SAME AREA AS SAMPLED BY A RECENT 
ALTIMETER PASS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH 
CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM 140W. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN JUST AT OR 
ABOVE 8 FT FOR THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS NEAR 140W UNDER PERSISTENT 
FRESH TRADE WINDS.

THE LEADING EDGE OF A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL TRAIN WITH 
PERIODS AT 19-21 SECONDS HAS LIFTED N OF THE EQUATOR AND WILL 
REACH THE COASTLINES S AND E OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
OVERNIGHT MON NIGHT. SEAS AT 8-9 FT ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD 
OFFSHORE OF ECUADOR TONIGHT THROUGH THU AFTERNOON.

$$ 
LEWITSKY