000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011524
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1605 UTC SUN JUN 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1430 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1007 MB BROAD LOW PRES AREA IS LOCATED NEAR 12N95W OR ABOUT 
300 NAUTICAL MILES S-SE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 240 NM NE SEMICIRCLE AND 120 NM 
SW SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME 
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW DRIFTS GENERALLY NORTHWARD 
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LOW HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL 
CYCLONE FORMATION THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 11N86W TO LOW PRES 
NEAR 12N95W TO 16N100W THEN CONTINUES FROM 09N110W TO 07N120W. 
ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 07N120 TO 06N132W TO 07N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS N OF THE AXIS E OF 90W AND S 
OF THE AXIS TO 09N E OF 89W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS 
WITHIN 180 NM SW OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 97W AND 100W.

...DISCUSSION...     

POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW AMANDA WAS ANALYZED NEAR 17N111W AT 
1007 MB. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS NEAR THE CENTER. 
AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0500 UTC INDICATED WINDS WERE 10 TO 15 KT ON 
THE W SIDE OF THE LOW AND SEAS ARE IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE. THIS LOW 
PRES IS EXPECTED TO OPEN INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH OVER THE NEXT 
24 HOURS.
 
1034 MB HIGH PRES IS WELL NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 
49N143W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE 
REGION FROM 32N135W TO 20N110W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE 
W CENTRAL WATERS BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A TROUGH FROM 13N139W TO 
03N144W IS SUPPORTING A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE AND RESULTANT 
SEAS TO 9 FT OVER W WATERS N OF THE ITCZ AS SEEN IN THE 0612 UTC 
ASCAT-B PASS AND ALTIMETER PASSES AROUND 1030 AND 1130 UTC. 
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TODAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES W OF THE AREA. 
SEAS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 8 FT FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO UNDER 
PERSISTENT FRESH TRADE WINDS.

THE LEADING EDGE OF A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL TRAIN WITH 
PERIODS AROUND 20 SECONDS WILL PASS N OF THE EQUATOR OVERNIGHT 
TONIGHT AND REACH THE COASTLINE S OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
OVERNIGHT MON NIGHT. SEAS TO 9 FT ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD OFFSHORE 
OF ECUADOR MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.

$$ 
SCHAUER