000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010959
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1005 UTC SUN JUN 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0915 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1007 MB BROAD LOW PRES AREA LOCATED NEAR 12N94W OR ABOUT 300 
MILES S-SE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO HAD BECOME BETTER DEFINED 
YESTERDAY...BUT HAS LOST SOME OF ITS DEFINITION OVER THE PAST 
SEVERAL HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
NOTED WITHIN 120 NW SEMICIRCLE AND 240 NM SW SEMICIRCLE OF THE 
LOW PRES. AN ASCAT SATELLITE PASS FROM 0330 UTC INDICATED FRESH 
TO STRONG WINDS IN THE SW QUADRANT OF THE LOW...LIKELY SPREADING 
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE LOW WITHIN 240 NM. SEAS ARE 
ESTIMATED TO BE 8-9 FT IN THIS AREA OF WIND...ENHANCED IN PART 
BY RESIDUAL LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO 
DRIFT WEST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS... THEN MAY DRIFT TO 
THE N. MEANWHILE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST WITH SEAS 
BUILDING TO 10 FT BY 24-48 HOURS. THE LOW HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF 
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS 13N110W TO 08N118W. ITCZ FROM 
08N118W TO 06N130W TO 08N135W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF ITCZ AXIS W OF 135W.

...DISCUSSION...     

POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW AMANDA AT 1008 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 
17N111W. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS NEAR THE CENTER. 
AN ASCAT PASS FROM 05 UTC INDICATE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT ON THE WEST 
SIDE OF THE LOW. SEAS HEIGHTS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 6 FT. 
THIS LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO OPEN INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
1032 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRES IS WELL NORTHWEST OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 40N142W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING 
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION TO 16N120W. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH 
IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. 
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE W CENTRAL WATERS BETWEEN THE 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND A TROUGH ALONG 140W FROM 04N TO 12N 
EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES AND 
RESULTANT SEAS TO 9 FT FROM 14N TO 17N W OF 135W...WHICH WILL 
PERSIST THROUGH 48 HOURS.

LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL TO 8 FT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EQUATOR 
BY LATE MON E OF 100W.

$$ 
CHRISTENSEN