000
AXPZ20 KNHC 312119
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
2205 UTC SAT MAY 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT 1009 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 
11.5N94.5W A FEW HUNDRED MILES S-SE OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. 
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 390 
NM IN THE SW SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW AND THE LOW IS GRADUALLY 
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. A 1628 UTC ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS 
SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG W-NW WINDS IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE 
LOW WHILE SEAS ARE 8-9 FT IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LOW 
WITH SW SWELL. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO DRIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH 
THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE FRESH WINDS SLOWLY EXPAND IN COVERAGE... 
BECOMING FRESH TO STRONG BY EARLY MON AFTERNOON AS THE 
ENVIRONMENT AROUND THE LOW BECOMES MORE CONDUCIVE TO ITS 
DEVELOPMENT. THE LOW HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE 
FORMATION THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N78W TO LOW PRES NEAR 
12N94W...THEN RESUMES FROM 13N110W TO 07N118W. THE ITCZ AXIS 
EXTENDS FROM 07N118W TO 06N130W TO LOW PRES NEAR 08N137W TO 
BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 420 NM SW OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 84W AND 
88W...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM SE OF THE 
AXIS BETWEEN 112W AND 117W...WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 
118W AND 122W...AND ALSO WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE AXIS W OF 137W.

...DISCUSSION...     

POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW AMANDA AT 1008 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 
17N110.5W. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS NEAR THE CENTER 
AND WINDS AND SEAS ARE BELOW A STRONG BREEZE AND 8 FT 
RESPECTIVELY. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO 
ELONGATE OVER THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS. 
 
1034 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRES IS WELL NORTHWEST OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 40N141W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING 
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION THROUGH 32N130W TO 18N115W. THE 
SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER 
OF THE WEEKEND. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE W CENTRAL 
WATERS BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND LOWER PRES ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE ITCZ WILL TIGHTEN TONIGHT THROUGH SUN ALLOWING TRADES 
TO INCREASE TO A FRESH BREEZE AND RESULTANT SEAS TO BUILD TO 8 
FT FROM 14N TO 17N W OF 136W...DIMINISHING BRIEFLY BY MON 
AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT TEMPORARILY WEAKENS.

CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL AT 8-9 FT CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE 
WATERS ALONG AND TO THE S OF EQUATOR E OF 117W. THESE SEAS WILL 
DECAY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE SHRINKING TO THE S...THEN 
WILL BE REINFORCED BY A NEW SET OF SOUTHERLY SWELL ON MON 
PUSHING THE EDGE OF SEAS AT 8 FT TO 03N NEAR 100W.

$$ 
LEWITSKY