000
AXPZ20 KNHC 311512
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1005 UTC SAT MAY 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A BROAD 1008 MB AREA OF LOW PRES IS CENTERED A FEW HUNDRED 
NAUTICAL MILES S-SE OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 11.5N94W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS FOUND WITHIN 390 NM W 
QUADRANT. AN ASCAT-A PASS FROM 0354 UTC SHOWS WINDS ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE BROAD CIRCULATION ARE A MODERATE BREEZE AT BEST...BUT 
AN ALTIMETER PASS JUST E OF THE LOW SHOWS SEAS TO 9 FT COMBINED 
WITH SW SWELL. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO DRIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH 
THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE FRESH WINDS SLOWLY EXPAND IN 
COVERAGE...BECOMING FRESH TO STRONG BY EARLY MON MORNING...AS 
THE ENVIRONMENT AROUND THE LOW BECOMES MORE CONDUCIVE TO ITS 
DEVELOPMENT. THE LOW HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE 
FORMATION THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 09N84W TO 11N92W 
THROUGH LOW PRES NEAR 11.5N94W TO 17N106W THEN CONTINUES FROM 
12N112W TO 07N120W. THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 07N120W TO 
09N134W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS N OF THE AXIS TO THE 
COAST E OF 90W AND S OF THE AXIS TO 03N BETWEEN 83W AND 94W. A 
TROUGH LIES FROM 15N134W TO 05N137W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH FROM 05N 
TO 09N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 390 NM W 
QUADRANT OF LOW PRES NEAR 11.5N94W.

...DISCUSSION...     

POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW AMANDA AT 1007 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 
17.5N110W. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS NEAR THE CENTER 
AND WINDS AND SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW A STRONG BREEZE AND 8 
FT...RESPECTIVELY. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED 
TO ELONGATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
 
THE 1030 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS WELL NORTHWEST OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA NEAR 39N142W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO 
THE REGION THROUGH 32N128W TO 21N111W. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT 
WHICH WAS PRESENT W OF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA AND PREVIOUSLY 
PRODUCED GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUES TO SEND SUBSIDING 
NW-N SWELL INTO THE NE DISCUSSION WATERS...WITH SEAS EXPECTED TO 
DROP BELOW 8 FT BY MIDDAY TODAY.

THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE 
WEEKEND. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE W CENTRAL WATERS 
BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND LOWER PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
ITCZ WILL TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT SUN NIGHT...ALLOWING TRADES TO 
INCREASE TO A FRESH BREEZE AND RESULTANT SEAS TO BUILD TO 8 FT 
FROM 08N TO 17N W OF 136W THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD 
MON MORNING.

CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL TO 9 FT CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE WATERS 
ALONG AND TO THE S OF EQUATOR E OF 115W. SEAS OVER 8 FT WILL 
GRADUALLY SHRINK SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS DESPITE A NEW 
BATCH OF LONG PERIOD SW SWELL MOVING ACROSS THIS AREA OVERNIGHT 
SUN NIGHT.

$$ 
SCHAUER