000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310904
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1005 UTC SAT MAY 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0915 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A BROAD 1007 MB AREA OF LOW PRES IS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED 
MILES S OF SE MEXICO NEAR 12.3N95.5W. THE LOW PRES IS UNDER THE 
EASTERN PORTION OF AN UPPER RIDGE...AND IS UNDERGOING 
CONSIDERABLE NORTHERLY SHEAR. AS A RESULT PULSES OF CONVECTION 
ARE LOCATED ABOUT 120 NM TO THE SW OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. THE 
POSITION OF THE LOW PRES IS ESTIMATED BASED ON NEARBY SHIP 
OBSERVATIONS AND AN ASCAT SATELLITE PASS FROM 04 UTC. ASSOCIATED 
WINDS ARE ALREADY MODERATE TO FRESH IN THE SW QUADRANT WHERE 
SEAS ARE 8 TO 9 FT COMBINED WITH SW SWELL. THE LOW WILL DRIFT NE-
E THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE FRESH WINDS EXPAND IN COVERAGE 
BUILDING SEAS TO 8-10 FT WITHIN 120 NM IN THE NW SEMICIRCLE BY 
48 HOURS. THIS LOW IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND 
THE LOW HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION 
THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 12N110W TO 07N120W. THE ITCZ 
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N120W TO 11N29W...THEN RESUMES FROM 06N137W 
TO BEYOND 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN NOTED FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN 88W AND 
91W...AND FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 96W AND 100W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION ALSO NOTED WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 117W AND 122W.

...DISCUSSION...     

POST TROPICAL REMNANT 1009 MB LOW OF AMANDA IS CENTERED NEAR 
19N108W. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS. A SHIP 
OBSERVATIONS AND ASCAT SATELLITE DATA INDICATE FAIRLY LIGHT 
WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRES. SEAS HEIGHTS HAVE BEEN 
SUBSIDING AND ARE ESTIMATED TO BE JUST BELOW 8 FT AT THIS TIME 
IN RESIDUAL SWELL. 
 
A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH REMAINS WELL NORTHWEST OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA NEAR 39N143W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO 
THE REGION TO 20N120W. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS PERSIST OFF THE 
COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. A SHIP REPORTED SEAS TO 7 FT 
LIKELY IN ASSOCIATED NORTHERLY SWELL NEAR 28N120W AT 06 UTC. 
THIS SUPPORTS WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING SEAS TO 8 FT STILL 
CONTINUING A LITTLE FARTHER WEST IN THE AREA N OF 26N BETWEEN 
122W AND 130W.  
 
A SURFACE TROUGH IS NOTED ALONG 135W S OF 13N. BY 48 HOURS...THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE W CENTRAL WATERS BETWEEN THE RIDGING 
AND THIS TROUGH WILL TIGHTEN AND INCREASE TRADES TO FRESH LEVELS 
WITH RESULTANT SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT FROM 12N TO 16N W OF 135W.

$$ 
CHRISTENSEN