000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310236
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
0405 UTC SAT MAY 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0215 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A BROAD 1007 MB AREA OF LOW PRES IS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED 
MILES S OF SE MEXICO NEAR 11.5N96.5W. ACTIVE CONVECTION IS 
PRESENT NEAR THE LOW AND MONSOON TROUGH AS DISCUSSED IN THE 
CONVECTION SECTION BELOW. ASSOCIATED WINDS ARE ALREADY MODERATE 
TO FRESH IN THE SW QUADRANT WHERE SEAS ARE 8-9 FT COMBINED WITH 
SW SWELL. THE LOW WILL DRIFT NE-E THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS 
WHILE FRESH WINDS EXPAND IN COVERAGE BUILDING SEAS TO 8-11 FT 
WITHIN 360 NM IN THE SE AND 120 NM IN THE NW SEMICIRCLES BY 48 
HOURS. THIS LOW IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND THE 
LOW HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION THROUGH 
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A VERY SLOW MOVING TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N82W TO 
11N85W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 06N WITHIN 
120 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE COASTS OF PANAMA AND 
COSTA RICA BETWEEN 81W AND 86W.
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 13N88W TO LOW PRES NEAR    
12N96W TO 14N100W...THEN RESUMES FROM 14N108W TO 09N117W. THE 
ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N117W TO 06N128W TO 09N133W...THEN 
RESUMES FROM 06N137W TO BEYOND 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 300 NM SE OF A LINE FROM 
09N89W TO 07N94W...WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON 
TROUGH BETWEEN 94W AND 100W...FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 94W AND 
104W...AND ALSO FROM 09N TO 17N BETWEEN 103W AND 107W.

...DISCUSSION...     

POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW AMANDA AT 1008 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 
18N108W. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS. HOWEVER...A 
SMALL AREA OF 8 FT SEAS WITH SW SWELL REMAINS FROM 10N TO 13N 
BETWEEN 104W AND 109W. THESE SEAS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE TO 
LESS THAN 8 FT LATER TONIGHT AS THE REMNANT LOW CONTINUES TO 
GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN.
 
A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH REMAINS WELL NORTHWEST OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA NEAR 41N141W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO 
THE REGION THROUGH 32N132W TO 23N115W. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT 
WHICH WAS PRESENT W OF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA AND WAS PRODUCING 
GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUES TO SLACKEN AND RESULTANT 
NORTHERLY SWELL HAS NOW SUBSIDED TO LESS THAN 8 FT ACROSS THE N 
CENTRAL AND NW DISCUSSION WATERS.

BY 48 HOURS...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE W CENTRAL WATERS 
BETWEEN THE RIDGING AND LOWER PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ WILL 
TIGHTEN WHICH WILL INCREASE TRADES TO FRESH LEVELS WITH 
RESULTANT SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT FROM 12N TO 16N W OF 136W.

CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL OF 8-9 FT CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE 
WATERS RIGHT ALONG AND TO THE S OF EQUATOR E OF 110W. THESE SEAS 
WILL NOT VARY MUCH THROUGH 24 HOURS...THEN THEY WILL DECAY AWAY 
FROM THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 36-48 HOURS.

$$ 
LEWITSKY