000
AXPZ20 KNHC 302119
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
2205 UTC FRI MAY 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A VERY SLOW MOVING TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN 
NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA BORDER TO 03N82W TO 10N84W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90-120 NM W OF 
THE WAVE AXIS. THIS FEATURE REMAINS DIFFICULT TO DISCERN IN 
GLOBAL MODELS. HOWEVER...THE GLOBAL MODELS DO ALL TRACK A WEAK 
LOW WHICH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR 11.5N95W AT 1010 MB AND IS 
FORECAST TO MOVE TO NEAR 11N96W THIS EVENING...THEN MAY SLOWLY 
DRIFT E THROUGH 48 HOURS. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM IN THE SW SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. THE 
LOW MAY DEEPEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS/MERGES WITH VORTICITY ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AT 
LEAST FRESH LEVELS NEAR THE LOW THIS WEEKEND WITH SEAS BUILDING 
TO 8-9 FT ON THE S SIDE OF THE LOW CIRCULATION AS LOCALLY 
GENERATED WIND WAVES COMBINE WITH LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL 
SW SWELL.
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N86W TO LOW PRES NEAR  
11.5N95W TO 12N98W...THEN RESUMES FROM 15N106W TO 08N119W. THE 
ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N119W TO 06N126W TO LOW PRES NEAR 
08N134W TO BEYOND 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 360 NM S OF A LINE FROM 09N88W TO 
11.5N95W TO 14N100W TO 14N104W.

ALSO...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM 
SW OF MEXICO BETWEEN 102W AND 105W ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN 
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE THAT IS CENTERED NEAR 15N101W.

...DISCUSSION...     

POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW AMANDA AT 1007 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 
18N108W. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS. HOWEVER...A 
SMALL AREA OF 8 FT SEAS WITH SW SWELL REMAIN FROM 11N TO 16N 
BETWEEN 103W AND 108W. THESE SEAS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE TO 
LESS THAN 8 FT LATE TONIGHT AS THE REMNANT LOW CONTINUES TO 
GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN.
 
A 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH REMAINS WELL NORTHWEST OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA NEAR 38N143W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO 
THE REGION THROUGH 32N130W TO 20N114W. A NORTHERLY SWELL WEST OF 
BAJA CALIFORNIA IS PRODUCING 8-9 FT SEAS N OF 27N BETWEEN 122W 
AND 130W RESULTING FROM EARLIER GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS THAT 
WERE OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THESE SEAS ARE 
FORECAST TO SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT THIS EVENING AS WINDS TO 
THE N CONTINUE TO DIMINISH.

CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL OF 8-9 FT REACHING THE SOUTHERN BORDER 
E OF 110W WILL SPREAD N-NE SLIGHTLY COVERING THE AREA S OF A 
LINE FROM 00N81W TO 00N93W TO 03.4S117W BY SAT AFTERNOON...THEN 
DECAYING FROM W TO E THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON.

$$ 
LEWITSKY