000
AXPZ20 KNHC 292115
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
2205 UTC THU MAY 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

DOWNGRADED POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW AMANDA IS CENTERED      
NEAR 16.2N 109.0W AT 29/2100 UTC MOVING E OR 90 DEGREES AT 7 KT. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. THE REMNANT 
CIRCULATION IS EXPOSED AND THE ONLY REMAINING CLUSTER OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO WITHIN  
30 NM OF 17.5N108W. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH 
ASSOCIATED WINDS DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS BY 24 HOURS...AND 
WITH ANY RESIDUAL SEAS/SWELL SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY 48 
HOURS. DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED BY 96 HOURS IF NOT SOONER. SEE  
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS N OF 03N ALONG 83W WITH THE NORTHERN PORTION 
EXTENDING ACROSS FAR WESTERN PANAMA INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA. 
THIS WAVE IS MOVING W AROUND 5-10 KT. ASSOCIATED SCATTERED 
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 02N E OF THE 
TROPICAL WAVE. WEAK LOW PRES MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHERN 
PORTION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 10N94W BY SAT AFTERNOON.
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N85W TO LOW PRES NEAR    
12N97W TO 11N105W...THEN RESUMES FROM 11N112W TO 07N120W TO LOW 
PRES NEAR 08N132W TO 07N135W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N135W 
TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH 
BETWEEN 85W AND 88W...WITHIN 480 NM NE OF A LINE FROM 07N95W TO 
04N100W TO 08N109W...AND WITHIN 180 NM SE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH 
BETWEEN 113W AND 121W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
120 NM OF 07.5N128W.

...DISCUSSION...     

1036 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED WELL NW OF THE AREA NEAR 42N141W. 
THIS HIGH EXTENDS A RIDGE SE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH 32N130W 
TO 24N112W. FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW S OF 30N 
WHILE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS CONTINUE N OF 30N. THESE WINDS 
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CONFUSED AND COMBINED SEAS OF 8-10 FT ACROSS 
THE FAR NW AND N CENTRAL DISCUSSION WATERS WHICH IS MIXING WITH 
SEVERAL LONG PERIOD SWELL TRAINS. COMBINED SEAS ARE FORECAST TO 
SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY 24-36 HOURS.

1009 MB LOW PRES IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 08N132W. 
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS RAPIDLY DIMINISHED DURING THE PAST 
SEVERAL HOURS. NEARBY WINDS ARE MAINLY 10-15 KT WITH SEAS 6-7 
FT. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD REACHING 07N136W BY 24 
HOURS...AND 07N138W. THE LOW MAY WEAKEN INTO AN OPEN TROUGH AS 
IT APPROACHES 140W.

CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL IS REACHING THE FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL 
WATERS SW OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS...AND WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD 
NORTHWARD COVERING THE WATERS S OF A LINE FROM 00N80W TO 00N93W 
TO 03.4S120W BY SAT AFTERNOON.
 
$$
LEWITSKY