000 AXPZ20 KNHC 290236 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC THU MAY 29 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM AMANDA IS CENTERED NEAR 16.3N 111.3W AT 29/0300 UTC MOVING NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 5KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN WARMING DRAMATICALLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH ASSOCIATED SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N108W TO 19N110W TO 16N112W TO 18N113W. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND AMANDA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY THU EVENING. AMANDA IS FORECAST TO STALL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN MAKE A U-TURN TOWARD THE SW THROUGH 48 HOURS WITH IT WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW BY FRI EVENING. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS PANAMA TO THE NE PACIFIC N OF 04N ALONG 81W. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 08N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W. THIS TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AROUND 10-15 KT DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 16N103W...THEN RESUMES FROM 10N112W TO 07N118W TO 09N127W TO LOW PRES NEAR 09N130W TO 04N135W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N135W TO BEYOND 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 06N BETWEEN 87W AND 91W...FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 93W AND 96W...WITHIN 150 NM NE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 99W AND 103W...WITHIN 180 NM SW OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 97W AND 101W...FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 100W AND 103W...FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 101W AND 106W...WITHIN 150 NM SE OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 113W AND 117W... AND WITHIN 240 NM SW OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 120W AND 127W. ...DISCUSSION... A NEARLY STATIONARY AND STRONG 1039 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS LOCATED WELL NW OF THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 43N144W. THIS HIGH EXTENDS A RIDGE SE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH 32N128W TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NEAR 23N110W. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT EXISTS ON THE SE-S SIDE OF THE RIDGE WITH GALE FORCE WINDS STILL BLOWING IN PORTIONS OF THE CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS EXTEND AWAY FROM THE GALES TO ACROSS THE N CENTRAL AND NW PORTION OF OUR DISCUSSION WATERS N OF A LINE FROM 30N118W TO 27N123W TO 22N136W TO 22N140W AS INDICATED BY EARLIER ASCAT AND ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASSES ALONG WITH SOME MORE RECENT SHIP REPORTS FROM VRWM2. ASSOCIATED SEAS ARE 8-11 FT...HIGHEST NEAR 30N123W...ACROSS THIS SAME AREA MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO A POSITION NEAR 42N140W BY 24 HOURS...AND NEAR 40N140W BY 48 HOURS WHILE WEAKENING. AS THE HIGH AND ASSOCIATED PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKEN THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO MODERATE TO FRESH OVER THE WATERS WHILE LINGERING 8-10 FT MIXED NORTHERLY AND SOUTHERLY SWELL COVERS THE AREA N OF 28N BETWEEN 123W AND 128W BY 48 HOURS. 1008 MB LOW PRES IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 09N130W. CONVECTION REMAINS ACTIVE NEAR THE LOW WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTER. ASSOCIATED WINDS ARE CURRENTLY 10-20 KT WITH SEAS OF 6-7 FT AND LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE LOW MOVES WESTWARD REACHING 09N134W BY 24 HOURS...AND 08N136W BY 48 HOURS. CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL WILL REACH THE FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL WATERS SW OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS BY THU AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY SPREADING NORTHWARD COVERING THE WATERS S OF A LINE FROM 03.4S81W TO 01N98W TO 00N96W TO 03.4S110W BY 48 HOURS. $$ LEWITSKY