000 AXPZ20 KNHC 282120 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC WED MAY 28 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM AMANDA IS CENTERED NEAR 15.8N 111.6W AT 28/2100 UTC MOVING NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB. THE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS DISPLACED SLIGHTLY TO THE NW-N OF AMANDA DUE TO SOUTHERLY SHEAR ALOFT WITH NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM IN THE N QUADRANT...60 NM IN THE E QUADRANT...AND 120 NM ELSEWHERE FROM THE CENTER. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND AMANDA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY FRI AFTERNOON. AMANDA IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE NE THROUGH FRI...THEN IS FORECAST TO STALL AND MAKE A U-TURN TOWARD THE SW. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE HAS EMERGED FROM NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE FAR SE PART OF THE AREA EXTENDING N OF 04N ALONG 79W. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 01N TO 08N E OF 83W. THIS TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AROUND 10-15 KT DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N83W TO 13N104W...THEN RESUMES FROM 10N114W TO LOW PRES NEAR 09N129W TO 03N135W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N135W TO BEYOND 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 86W AND 92W...WITHIN 240 NM N AND 120 NM SW OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 98W AND 102W...WITHIN 240 NM SE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 114W AND 118W...AND WITHIN 300 NM SW OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 122W AND 126W. ALSO...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM SW OF THE COAST MEXICO BETWEEN 100W AND 104W AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 16N100W. ...DISCUSSION... NEARLY STATIONARY AND STRONG 1038 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS LOCATED WELL NW OF THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 43N144W. THIS HIGH EXTENDS A RIDGE SE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH 32N127W TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NEAR 25N112W. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT EXISTS ON THE SE-S SIDE OF THE RIDGE WITH GALE FORCE WINDS NOW BLOWING NEAR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COAST OF CALIFORNIA. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS EXTEND AWAY FROM THE GALE AREA ACROSS THE N CENTRAL AND NW PORTION OF OUR DISCUSSION WATERS N OF A LINE FROM 30N118W TO 23N133W TO 23N140W AS INDICATED BY RECENT ASCAT AND ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASSES. ASSOCIATED SEAS ARE 8-10 FT ACROSS THIS SAME AREA...MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO A POSITION NEAR 41N141W BY 24 HOURS...AND NEAR 40N140W BY 48 HOURS WHILE WEAKENING. AS THE HIGH AND ASSOCIATED PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKEN THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO MODERATE TO FRESH OVER THE WATERS WHILE LINGERING 8- 10 FT MIXED NORTHERLY AND SOUTHERLY SWELL COVERS THE AREA N OF A LINE FROM 30N118W TO 27N120W TO 20N140W BY 24 HOURS...THEN SHRINKING IN COVERAGE TO N OF 27N BETWEEN 121W AND 130W BY 48 HOURS. 1008 MB LOW PRES IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 09N129W. CONVECTION HAS FLARED UP NEAR THE LOW WITH NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF THE LOW CENTER. ASSOCIATED WINDS ARE CURRENTLY 10-20 KT WITH SEAS OF 6-7 FT AND LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE LOW MOVES WESTWARD AT AROUND 5-10 KT. CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL WILL REACH THE FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL WATERS SW OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS BY THU AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY SPREADING NORTHWARD COVERING THE WATERS S OF A LINE FROM 03.4S82W TO 00N97W TO 03.4S109W BY 48 HOURS. $$ LEWITSKY