000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280244
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED MAY 28 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

DOWNGRADED TROPICAL STORM AMANDA IS CENTERED NEAR 14.6N 112.9W 
AT 28/0300 UTC MOVING NW AT 3 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE IS 992 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 75 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM IN THE N QUADRANT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 210 
NM IN THE NE QUADRANT...120 NM IN THE SE QUADRANT...AND 75 NM IN 
THE W SEMICIRCLE. AN EARLIER 2157 UTC SSMI MICROWAVE PASS ALONG 
WITH RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 0103 UTC SSMIS PASS 
ALL INDICATED THAT THE CENTER WAS WELL TO THE S THAN WAS 
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT WITH ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION REMOVED TO 
THE N OF THE CENTER. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS AND AMANDA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION BY THU EVENING. AMANDA IS FORECAST TO MOVE MORE TO 
THE N THEN NNE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...EVENTUALLY 
TURNING BACK TO THE SW AS RIDGING BUILDS AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE 
WITH IT WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW FRI EVENING. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21   
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N77W TO 14N107W...THEN RESUMES 
FROM 09N117W TO 08N120W TO 10N125W TO LOW PRES NEAR 09N127W TO 
05N134W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N134W TO BEYOND 05N140W. 
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 300 NM SW OF 
THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 93W AND 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM N OF THE MONSOON 
TROUGH BETWEEN 101W AND 107W...AND ALSO WITHIN 75 NM OF 07N125W.

...DISCUSSION...     

STRONG 1039 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS LOCATED WELL N OF THE 
DISCUSSION WATERS NEAR 43N146W. THIS HIGH EXTENDS A RIDGE SE 
ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH 32N125W TO 24N114W. A TIGHT PRES 
GRADIENT EXISTS ON THE E-SE SIDE OF THE RIDGE WITH A DEVELOPING 
GALE SETTING UP ALONG THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COAST OF 
CALIFORNIA. 

FRESH N-NE WINDS CURRENTLY DIP INTO THE FAR N CENTRAL DISCUSSION 
WATERS WITH ASSOCIATED 8-9 FT SEAS MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD 
SOUTHERLY SWELL N OF A LINE FROM 30N121W TO 26N128W TO 26N132W. 
THE AREA OF FRESH N-NE WINDS WHICH MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE LOCALLY 
TO STRONG WITH SEAS OF 8-11 FT SPREADING TO THE SW-W THROUGH THE 
NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

WEAK 1008 MB LOW PRES IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR  
09N127W. THE LOW IS CURRENTLY STATIONARY HOWEVER IT IS FORECAST 
TO BEGIN MOVING W AT 5-10 KT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 
ASSOCIATED WINDS ARE CURRENTLY 5-15 KT WITH SEAS 5-7 FT AND 
LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 
48 HOURS.

WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PULSE TO FRESH LEVELS IN THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED WITH SEAS TO 8 FT EXPECTED 
THROUGH WED AFTERNOON...SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT THEREAFTER.

BY THU AFTERNOON...SW SWELL TO 8 FT WILL APPROACH THE EQUATOR 
WHILE COVERING THE WATERS S OF A LINE FROM 03.4S92W TO 01S100W 
TO 03.4S107W BY THU EVENING.
 
$$
LEWITSKY