000
AXPZ20 KNHC 272124
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE MAY 27 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE AMANDA IS CENTERED NEAR 15.0N 112.6W AT 27/2100 UTC  
MOVING NNW AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM IN THE SE 
QUADRANT AND 150 NM IN THE SW QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 111W AND 115W. 
CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND 
AMANDA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM WED NIGHT. 
AMANDA IS FORECAST TO MOVE MORE TO THE N AND THEN NNE DURING THE 
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...EVENTUALLY TURNING BACK TO THE SW AS 
RIDGING BUILDS AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ 
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR   
MORE DETAILS.
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 06N85W TO 14N106W... 
THEN RESUMES FROM 08N120W TO 10N124W TO LOW PRES NEAR 09N127W  
TO 05N132W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N132W TO BEYOND 
04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM S OF A 
LINE FROM 06N81W TO 05N90W...AND FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN 105W 
AND 113W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 88W AND 
95W...FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN 95W AND 101W...WITHIN 90 NM N OF 
THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 98W AND 101W...AND ALSO WITHIN 240 NM 
N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 101W AND 106W. SIMILAR 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM W OF A LINE FROM 09N124W TO 05N123W.

...DISCUSSION...     

STRONG 1038 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS LOCATED WELL N OF THE 
DISCUSSION WATERS NEAR 43N146W. THIS HIGH EXTENDS A RIDGE SE 
ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH 32N131W TO 23N120W. A TIGHT PRES 
GRADIENT EXISTS ON THE E-SE SIDE OF THE RIDGE WITH A DEVELOPING 
GALE SETTING UP ALONG THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COAST OF 
CALIFORNIA. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS CURRENTLY DIP INTO OUR AREA N 
OF 27N BETWEEN 126W AND 131W...WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS OF 8-9 FT 
ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 27N BETWEEN 123W AND 131W MIXING WITH 
LONG PERIOD SW SWELL. THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS 
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NW AND N CENTRAL WATERS BY 24 HOURS 
CONTINUING THROUGH 48 HOURS WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS BUILDING UP TO 
10 FT.

A LATE MORNING ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG 
NE-E WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WITH ENHANCEMENT FROM 
NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW...HOWEVER THESE WINDS HAVE SINCE 
DIMINISHED TO 10-20 KT. SOME REMNANT 8-9 FT SEAS LINGER DOWNWIND 
OF THE GULF FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 87W AND 90W. EXPECT WINDS TO 
PULSE UP TO 20 KT AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED...WITH 
WEAKER WINDS EXPECTED BY WED EVENING AND BEYOND.

BY 48 HOURS...SW SWELL TO 8 FT WILL APPROACH THE EQUATOR WHILE 
COVERING THE WATERS S OF A LINE FROM 03.4S90W TO 01S101W TO 
03.4S104W.
 
$$
LEWITSKY