000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271546
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE MAY 27 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                  
HURRICANE AMANDA IS CENTERED NEAR 14.7N 112.3W AT 27/1500 UTC  
MOVING NNW AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 957 
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM 
OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED ELSEWHERE FROM 
12N TO 18N BETWEEN 110W AND 114W. AMANDA IS A CATEGORY THREE 
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. WEAKENING 
IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND AMANDA IS EXPECTED TO 
WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM BY THURSDAY. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ 
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE 
DETAILS.
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 08N78W TO 06N86W TO 10N96W TO 
13N105W...THEN RESUMES W OF AMANDA FROM 08N118W TO 1008 LOW PRES 
 EAR 09N126W TO 06N132W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS 
EXTENDS FROM 06N132W TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 92W AND 98W...FROM 07N 
TO 12N BETWEEN 105W AND 112W...AND FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 122W 
AND 125W.

...DISCUSSION...                                            
OUTSIDE OF THE INFLUENCE OF HURRICANE AMANDA...THERE ARE A 
COUPLE OF AREAS WITH WINDS OF 20-25 KT AND SEAS OF 8 FT OR 
GREATER...ONE IS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS AND THE OTHER IN THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO. ANOTHER AREA OF SEAS ABOVE 8 FT IS GENERATED 
FROM CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL COMBINING WITH MIXED SWELL 
EMANATING FROM AMANDA. THIS SWELL EVENT CURRENTLY DOMINATES THE 
WATERS S OF 20N BETWEEN 95W AND 120W. THIS AREA OF SWELL WILL 
DIMINISH AS AMANDA CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST 
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 

STRONG HIGH PRES OF 1036 MB LOCATED NW OF AREA NEAR 43W147W 
EXTENDS A RIDGE SE ACROSS THE NW WATERS TO NEAR 22N112W. PRES 
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS RESULTING IN N TO NE 
WINDS OF 20-25 KT ACROSS THE N WATERS MAINLY N OF 27N BETWEEN 
125W AND 131W. AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASS CONFIRMED THE 
PRESENCE OF THESE WINDS. IN ADDITION...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE 
FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA BETWEEN THE 
STRONG HIGH PRES AND LOWER PRES OVER SW CONUS. THESE STRONG 
WINDS WILL BRING INCREASING SEAS OF UP TO 11 FT IN NORTHERLY 
SWELLS ACROSS THE N WATERS...COVERING THE AREA N OF 21N W OF A 
LINE FROM 30N118W TO 25N125W TO 21N133W BY THU MORNING.
 
AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS SHOWED NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT BLOWING ACROSS 
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AS FRESH TRADE WINDS FLOW IN THE SW 
CARIBBEAN FUNNELS THROUGH THE GAP. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE 
FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS BUT MAINLY DURING THE 
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE 
NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW.
 
$$
GR