000 AXPZ20 KNHC 270236 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC TUE MAY 27 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0215 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... HURRICANE AMANDA IS CENTERED NEAR 13.7N 111.9W...OR ABOUT 650 MILES S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... AT 0300 UTC MAY 27 AND IS WEAKENING. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB. AMANDA IS MOVING NNW...OR 340 DEG...AT 04 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 90 WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY FLARING WITHIN 90 NM OVER THE E SEMICIRCLE AND AND WITHIN 45 NM OVER THE W SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM E AND 60 NM W SEMICIRCLES. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION SURROUNDS THE STORM ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18N112W TO 11N110W. AMANDA IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM LATE WED NIGHT OR EARLY THU MORNING. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W OFF THE COAST OF COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 08N77W TO 08N91W...THEN TURNS NW TO 12N107W WHERE THE MONSOON TROUGH LOSES IDENTITY IN THE BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE AMANDA. THE MONSOON TROUGH THEN RESUMES SW OF AMANDA NEAR 10N115W AND CONTINUES SW TO 08N126W TO 05N132W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ. THE ITCZ THEN CONTINUES SW TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG IS OVER AND TO THE S OF THE EASTERN SEGMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 05N77W TO 05N83W. SIMILAR CONVECTION SURROUNDS AMANDA FROM 03-18N BETWEEN 94-114W...AND IS ALONG THE WESTERN SEGMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 06N114W TO 07N128W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 33N124W WITH DRY UPPER AIR INDICATED WITHIN ITS ENVELOPE WHICH IS COVERING THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 28N TO THE W OF 119W. AN UPPER CYCLONE CONTINUES IMMEDIATELY TO THE S AT 22N127W...WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SE TO A BASE OVER THE TROPICS AT 12N127W. FURTHER TO THE S IS A UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING E INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 04N140W TO 02N116W...AND IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN SEGMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED. THE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THIS CONVECTION IS SPREADING SLIGHTLY S TOWARDS THE EQUATOR. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED E OF HURRICANE AMANDA NEAR 14N100W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING W ACROSS THE HURRICANE TO A GENTLE RIDGE ALONG POINTS 13N116W...20N117W AND 28N111W. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM AMANDA...AND OTHER CONVECTION UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE BETWEEN 93-114W...IS ADVECTED N AND NE ALONG THE W PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE...AND ACROSS MEXICO TO THE S OF 28N..AND CONTINUES E ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES SW ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TO A BASE OVER EASTERN PANAMA. CONVECTION WAS ENHANCED EARLIER ALONG THE BASE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH AND ALONG THE LOWER LEVEL MONSOON TROUGH AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. THE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY ADVECTED S...REACHING ALONG 02N BETWEEN 80-94W. A 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 33N143W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO 20N110W PER LATEST SCATTEROMETER WINDS. ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE FORECAST AT 10-15 KT AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS OF 5-7 FT. THE GRADIENT IS SUPPORTING NE 15-20 KT WINDS TO THE N OF THE RIDGE AXIS...WITH A TONGUE OF 7-8 FT SEAS ALREADY ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 122- 127W. THIS AFFECTED AREA OF 15-20 KT NE WINDS IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 25N TO THE W OF 117W ON WED...EXCEPT A SMALL AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS TO THE N OF 31N BETWEEN 120-126W WITH SEAS OF 8-12 FT. THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN WED NIGHT INTO THU WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AND SEAS SUBSIDING TO 5-7 FT ON FRI. $$ NELSON