000 AXPZ20 KNHC 262215 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC MON MAY 26 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... HURRICANE AMANDA IS CENTERED NEAR 13.4N 111.8W...OR ABOUT 670 MILES S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... AT 2100 UTC MAY 26 AND IS WEAKENING. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 957 MB. AMANDA IS MOVING NNW...OR 335 DEG...AT 04 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY FLARING WITHIN 75 NM OVER THE W SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 75 NM OVER THE SE AND WITHIN 150 NM OVER THE NW SEMICIRCLES. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18N112W TO 12N110W. AMANDA IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM LATE TUE NIGHT OR EARLY WED MORNING. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W OFF THE COAST OF COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 07N78W TO 08N90W...THEN TURNS NW TO 12N105W WHERE THE MONSOON TROUGH LOSES IDENTITY IN THE BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE AMANDA. THE MONSOON TROUGH THEN RESUMES SW OF AMANDA NEAR 10N114W AND CONTINUES SW TO 05N133W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ. THE ITCZ THEN CONTINUES SW TO BEYOND 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG IS OVER AND TO THE S OF THE EASTERN SEGMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 05N77W TO 05N84W. SIMILAR CONVECTION SURROUNDS AMANDA FROM 03-17N BETWEEN 97-117W...AND IS ALONG THE WESTERN SEGMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N120W TO 07N127W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 31N126W WITH DRY UPPER AIR INDICATED WITHIN ITS ENVELOPE WHICH IS COVERING THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 27N TO THE W OF 119W. AN UPPER CYCLONE CONTINUES IMMEDIATELY TO THE S AT 21N128W...WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SE TO A BASE OVER THE TROPICS AT 11N116W. A UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 04N140W TO 03N115W...AND IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN SEGMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ALONG THE ITCZ AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED. THE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THIS CONVECTION IS SPREADING S TOWARDS THE EQUATOR. SEVERAL UPPER ANTICYCLONES ARE OBSERVED E OF HURRICANE AMANDA WITH A COMBINED UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING W ACROSS THE HURRICANE TO A GENTLE RIDGE ALONG POINTS 10N117W...18N117W AND 26N111W. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM AMANDA...AND OTHER CONVECTION UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE BETWEEN 92-116W...IS ADVECTED N AND NE ALONG THE W PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE...AND ACROSS MEXICO TO THE S OF 28N..AND CONTINUES E ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES SW ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TO A BASE OVER EASTERN PANAMA. CONVECTION IS ENHANCED AGAIN ALONG THE BASE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH AND ALONG THE LOWER LEVEL MONSOON TROUGH AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. THE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY ADVECTED S...REACHING ALONG 02N BETWEEN 80-85W. A 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 33N143W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO 20N110W PER LATEST SCATTEROMETER WINDS. ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE FORECAST AT 10-15 KT AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS OF 5-7 FT. THE GRADIENT IS SUPPORTING NE 15-20 KT WINDS TO THE N OF THE RIDGE AXIS...WITH A TONGUE OF 7-8 FT SEAS ALREADY ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 122- 127W. THIS AFFECTED AREA OF 15-20 KT NE WINDS IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 25N TO THE W OF 117W ON WED...EXCEPT A SMALL AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS TO THE N OF 31N BETWEEN 120-126W WITH SEAS OF 8-12 FT. THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN WED NIGHT INTO THU WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AND SEAS SUBSIDING TO 5-7 FT ON FRI. $$ NELSON