000
AXPZ20 KNHC 261015 CCA
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON MAY 26 2014

CORRECTED SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE... 

HURRICANE AMANDA IS CENTERED NEAR 13.1N 111.6W...OR ABOUT 685 
MILES OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... AT 
0900 UTC MAY 26 MOVING NNW OR 340 DEG...MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 
OF 945 MB. AFTER HAVING ACHIEVED STATUS OF STRONGEST MAY 
HURRICANE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC ON RECORD YESTERDAY...ITS 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY TO 120 KT WITH 
WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT. AMANDA CURRENTLY HAS A 15 NM DIAMETER EYE. 
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY SOLID RING OF COLD TOP 
CONVECTION OF NUMEROUS STRONG INTENSITY LOCATED WITHIN 120 NM OF 
THE CENTER IN THE N SEMICIRCLE...AND 60 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE 
S SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
NOTED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17N111W 
TO 14N114W...AND WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15N109W 
TO 16N111W. SIMILAR TYPE CONVECTION IN CLUSTERS IS TO THE NE OF 
AMANADA WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE FROM 16N109W TO 18N106W TO INLAND 
THE COAST OF MEXICO AT 19N104W.

AMANDA IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TO WEAKEN AT A RAPID RATE THIS 
AFTERNOON UNDER S TO SW UPPER LEVEL SHEAR...ALONG WITH COOLER 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN ITS NEAR FUTURE PATH. THE CYCLONE IS 
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO A MINIMAL HURRICANE BY TUE 
AFTERNOON...AND TO A TROPICAL STORM TUE NIGHT. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS.  
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS NW OFF THE COAST OF COAST OF COLOMBIA 
AT 07N77W TO 10N88W...THEN TURNS W TO 11N95W AND TO 12N107W 
WHERE THE TROUGH LOSES IDENTITY IN THE BROAD CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE AMANDA. THE MONSOON TROUGH 
THEN RESUMES SW OF AMANDA NEAR 10N115W...AND CONTINUES SW TO 
09N120W AND SW TO 08N128W AND TO 05N133W WHERE SCATTEROMETER 
WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ SW TO BEYOND 05N140W. 

SCATTERED MODERATE TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED S 
OF THE TROUGH WITHIN 75 NM OF A LINE FROM 05N101W TO 06N104W TO 
08N107W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
ELSEWHERE S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 98W AND 107W...AND ALSO N OF 
THE TROUGH TO 15N BETWEEN 97W AND 107W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS 
WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 10N90W TO 11N90W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                       

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE MOVING EASTWARD IS CENTERED NEAR 31N130W 
WITH ASSOCIATED DRY AIR PRESENT OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 
26N TO THE W OF 122W. AN UPPER CYCLONE DRIFTING WESTWARD IS NEAR 
21N127W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SE TO 17N122W...AND TO A 
BASE OVER THE TROPICS NEAR 10N117W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS INTO 
THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 04N140W TO THE EQUATOR AT 120W. IT IS 
PRESENTLY ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN SEGMENT OF 
THE MONSOON TROUGH. SOME OF THE DEBRIS MOISTURE...IN THE FORM OF 
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS...FROM THIS CONVECTION IS 
SPREADING TO THE NE...AND IS MERGING WITH A SIMILAR MOISTURE 
PLUME AS DESCRIBED BELOW. THIS MOISTURE ALSO COMBINES WITH A 
LARGER PLUME OF UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS MOISTURE ORIGINATING FROM  
HURRICANE AMANDA...OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
AS DESCRIBED BELOW. 

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER N/CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WITH AN 
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO A BASE OVER CENTRAL BAJA 
CALIFORNIA. DRY ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH IS MAINTAINING 
STABLE AND FAIR CONDITIONS N OF 25N E OF 122W WHERE SKIES ARE 
MAINLY CLOUD FREE. SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING 
NEWD ACROSS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND WITH A TRAJECTORY TOWARDS 
SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA ARE NOTED FROM 14N TO 25N BETWEEN 115W AND 
123W.

BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT IS OBSERVED TO THE E OF HURRICANE 
AMANDA WITH THE ASSOCIATED MEAN ANTICYCLONE LOCATED AT 13N95W.  
DEBRIS MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF MOSTLY BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS FROM 
AMANDA...AND OTHER CONVECTION UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE BETWEEN 93W 
AND 115W...IS BEING ADVECTED NE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF 
THE ANTICYCLONE...AND ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO FROM 14N TO 
26N...AND CONTINUES EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. 
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THESE CLOUDS ARE MERGING WITH THOSE 
DESCRIBED IN THE ABOVE PARAGRAPH. 
 
AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES SW ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TO A   
BASE OVER EASTERN PANAMA. CONVECTION WAS ENHANCED EARLIER ALONG 
THE BASE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH AND ALONG THE LOWER LEVEL MONSOON 
TROUGH AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. THE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY 
ADVECTED S...REACHING THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 80W AND 98W. 
 
A 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED JUST NW OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA NEAR 33N141W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO 26N129W TO NEAR 
21N120W PER THE 06 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS. ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE 
WINDS ARE FORECAST AT 10-15 KT AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF 
THIS RIDGE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH SEAS IN THE 5-7 FT 
RANGE. THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN NE OF THE RIDGE AS 
AMANDA CONTINUES NORTHWARD. THIS WILL INCREASE THE NW-N WINDS TO 
15-20 KT TODAY...AND SEND A SWATH OF 7-9 FT SEAS INTO THE 
DISCUSSION WATERS N OF 26N BETWEEN 122-132W THROUGH TUE. N-NE 
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE WATERS N 
OF 30N...AND 15-20 KT FROM 25N-30N ON WED...WITH SEAS BUILDING   
8 TO 12 FT IN MIXED N AND S SWELL ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 25N W 
OF 117W.
 
$$
AGUIRRE