000 AXPZ20 KNHC 260244 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SUN MAY 25 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0215 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... HURRICANE AMANDA IS CENTERED NEAR 12.6N 111.4W...OR ABOUT 720 MILES S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... AT 0300 UTC MAY 26 AND IS WEAKENING. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 941 MB. AMANDA IS MOVING N...OR 335 DEG...AT 03 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT. AMANDA HAD A 10 NM WIDE EYE A FEW HOURS AGO BUT CURRENTLY HAS A 15 NM DIAMETER EYE WITH SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION FLARING WITHIN 60 NM E AND WITHIN 45 NM W SEMICIRCLES. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17N110W TO 11N111W...AND ALONG AN OUTER BAND WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13N109W TO 08N111W...AND WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 12N115W TO 08N114W. AMANDA IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM ON WED. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS NW OFF THE COAST OF COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 06N77W TO 11N93W...THEN TURNS W TO 11N106W WHERE THE MONSOON TROUGH LOSES IDENTITY IN THE BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE AMANDA. THE MONSOON TROUGH THEN RESUMES SW OF AMANDA NEAR 09N114W AND CONTINUES W TO 09124W THEN SW TO 06N132W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ. THE ITCZ THEN CONTINUES SW TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 04N79W TO 08N82W...S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 75 NM OF 09N90W...AND SURROUNDING THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 300 NM OF 09N102W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ELSEWHERE FROM 00-15N E OF 106W... AND FROM 02-11N BETWEEN 110-135W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 31N130W WITH DRY UPPER AIR INDICATED WITHIN ITS ENVELOPE WHICH IS COVERING THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 26N TO THE W OF 117W. AN UPPER CYCLONE HAS DRIFTING SW TO NEAR 19N135W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDING SE TO A BASE OVER THE TROPICS AT 10N117W. A UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 04N140W TO 00N120W...AND IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN SEGMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ALONG THE ITCZ AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED. SOME OF THE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THIS CONVECTION SPREADS N AND MERGES WITH ANOTHER MOISTURE PLUME...THAT ORIGINATES FROM ITCZ CONVECTION W OF THE AREA...WITH THE MERGED PLUME CONTINUING NE WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12N127W TO 23N114W WHERE IT MERGES WITH SOME OF THE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE AMANDA. AN UPPER CYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO A BASE OVER THE PACIFIC NEAR 24N114W. SEVERAL UPPER ANTICYCLONES ARE OBSERVED E OF HURRICANE AMANDA WITH A COMBINED UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING W ACROSS THE HURRICANE TO A GENTLE RIDGE ALONG POINTS 09N116W...20N115W AND 22N111W. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM AMANDA...AND OTHER CONVECTION UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE BETWEEN 88-115W...IS ADVECTED NE ALONG THE W PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE...AND ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO FROM 14- 26N...AND CONTINUES E ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES SW ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TO A BASE OVER EASTERN PANAMA. CONVECTION WAS ENHANCED EARLIER ALONG THE BASE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH AND ALONG THE LOWER LEVEL MONSOON TROUGH AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. THE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY ADVECTED S...REACHING THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 80-98W. A 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 34N136W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO 20N110W PER LATEST SCATTEROMETER WINDS. ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE FORECAST AT 10-15 KT AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE THROUGH THE NEXT WEEKEND... WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS OF 5-7 FT. THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN NE OF THE RIDGE AS AMANDA CONTINUES NORTHWARD. THIS WILL INCREASE THE NW-N WINDS TO 15-20 KT TONIGHT AND MON...AND PUSH A TONGUE OF 7-9 FT SEAS INTO THE DISCUSSION WATERS N OF 26N BETWEEN 122-132W ON MON AND TUE. N-NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 30N...AND 15-20 KT FROM 25-30N ON WED...WITH SEAS BUILDING 8-12 FT IN MIXED N AND S SWELL ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 25N W OF 117W. $$ NELSON