000
AXPZ20 KNHC 251623
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN MAY 25 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE... 

AT 1500 UTC...HURRICANE AMANDA WAS CENTERED AT 11.8N 111.1W...OR 
ABOUT 770 NM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 135 KT...155 MPH...MOVING N AT 2 KT. 
SATELLITE PHOTOS THIS MORNING CONTINUED TO SHOW AMANDA 
INTENSIFYING...WITH PEAK INTENSITY SUGGESTED BY ITS CLOUD 
STRUCTURE AROUND 1130 UTC. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITHIN THE SW 
PORTIONS OF THE EYEWALL HAS SINCE BEGUN TO WEAKEN...WHILE THE 
EYE HAS REMAIN NEAR 15 NM WIDE. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WAS 
OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 90 NM ACROSS THE N 
QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING 
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM NE...120 NM SE...180 NM SW AND 270 NM NW 
QUADRANTS. 

AMANDA APPEARS TO HAVE BEGUN THE NORTHWARD MOTION FORECAST BY 
GLOBAL MODELS...AND WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS. AS THIS OCCURS...AMANDA WILL ...AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN 
QUICKLY. AMANDA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY OVER THE NEXT 24 
TO 36 HOURS...AND THEN MUCH MORE QUICKLY AS IT ENCOUNTERS STRONG 
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR...AND WEAKENS TO TROPICAL STORM 
STRENGTH AFTER 72 HOURS. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
 
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N74W TO 10N88W TO 09N92W TO 
11N102W...WHERE IT REMAINS FRACTURED FROM AMANDA...THEN RESUMES 
FROM 07.5N115W TO 08N126W....WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ... 
CONTINUING ON TO 05N134W TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED S OF TROUGH FROM 02.5N TO 10N E OF 
102W...AND WITHIN 180 NM N OF TROUGH BETWEEN 89W AND 99W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 300 NM S OF 
TROUGH FROM 115W TO 118W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED 
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITCZ BETWEEN 127W AND 136W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OCCURRING WITHIN 180 NM 
OF COAST OF MEXICO FROM 96.5W TO 103W.

...DISCUSSION...                                       

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER NW PORTIONS NEAR 
30N131W...WHILE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WAS LOCATED TO THE 
SE...EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER CYCLONE OVER THE DESERT SW OF THE 
U.S. ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...TO AN ELONGATED MIDDLE TO 
UPPER CYCLONE NEAR 21N132W. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING GENERALLY RESIDES 
TO THE S AND SE OF THIS TROUGH AND ACROSS THE TROPICS. MAJOR 
HURRICANE AMANDA REMAINS UNDER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SPANNING BETWEEN 82W AND 115W. STRONG SW FLOW 
ALOFT OCCURRING ABOUT 600 NM TO THE NW OF AMANDA WILL GRADUALLY 
IMPINGE UPON THE HURRICANE BY LATE MON.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED NEAR 
32N138W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO 21N110W. ANTICYCLONIC 
SURFACE WINDS ARE FORECAST AT 10-15 KT AROUND THE SOUTHERN 
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH 
ASSOCIATED SEAS OF 5-8 FT. THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN 
NE OF THE RIDGE TONIGHT LEADING TO INCREASING THE NW-N WINDS TO 
15-20 KT AND DRIVING A SWATH OF 7-9 FT SEAS INTO THE DISCUSSION 
WATERS N OF 25N BETWEEN 121W AND 129W ON MON AND TUE.

STRONG SOUTHERN HEMI SW SWELL HAS BEGUN TO MOVE ACROSS THE 
EQUATOR EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL PROPAGATE NE AND REACH THE 
COASTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO EARLY MON. SEAS OF 8 FT AND 
GREATER WILL SPREAD AS FAR N AS 7N BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE AS 
THEY BEGIN TO MERGE WITH NORTHERLY SWELL FROM AMANDA.

$$
STRIPLING