000
AXPZ20 KNHC 241618
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT MAY 24 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE... 

AMANDA HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW IMPROVED ORGANIZATION IN BOTH 
SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY THIS MORNING...WITH A SPORADIC 
EYE FEATURE SUGGESTED...AND HAS RECENTLY BEEN UPGRADED TO 
HURRICANE AMANDA...LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 109.9W 989 MB AT 1500 UTC 
MOVING WNW OR 295 DEG AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW 
65 KT GUSTING TO 80 KT. AMANDA REMAINS IN AN OCEANIC AND 
ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT VERY FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED 
INTENSIFICATION...AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY 
INTENSIFY AND REACH MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN ABOUT 24-36 
HOURS. STEERING CURRENTS REMAINS VERY WEAK...AND A VERY SLOW 
DRIFT TOWARDS THE WNW TO NW IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF 
DAYS BEFORE A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION BEGINS TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. 

NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE INDICATED BY SATELLITE PHOTOS 
THIS MORNING WITHIN 45 NM OF CENTER...WHILE SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER 
EXCEPT 150 NM ACROSS THE NW QUADRANT. AS AMANDA CONTINUES TO 
INTENSIFY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN 
CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER...WITHIN 90 NM.  
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR   
07N78W...THEN TURNS NW TO 10N83W AND CONTINUES TO 07N94W TO 
09N102W WHERE THE TROUGH LOSES IDENTITY IN THE BROAD CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE AMANDA. THE MONSOON TROUGH 
THEN RESUMES SW OF AMANDA NEAR 09N112W...AND CONTINUES SW TO 
07N123W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING SW TO 
05N131W TO BEYOND 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IN CLUSTERS ARE ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 93W 
AND 102W..AND S FROM THERE TO 02N. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALONG 
THE TROUGH BETWEEN 86W AND 90W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                       

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED JUST NW OF THE DISCUSSION NEAR 
31N137W. TO THE S AND E...AN UPPER CYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER 
CENTRAL ARIZONA WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S AND THEN SW TO 
NEAR 25N122W...AND IS BECOMING WEAKLY CONNECTED TO AN ELONGATED 
UPPER CYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 22N134W. W TO SW FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS 
TO THE S OF THESE TWO TROUGHS...WITH EQUATORIAL RIDGING 
PREVAILING FARTHER S ACROSS THE TROPICS AND BEING MAINTAINED BY 
DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ. UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGING IS EXPANDING ACROSS THE AREA E OF 116W...AS AN UPPER 
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE HAS DEVELOPED DIRECTLY OVER AMANDA. UPPER 
RIDGING EXTENDS E AND NE TO CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 85W AND INTO 
THE W GULF OF MEXICO.   

AT LOWER LEVELS...A 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 33N137W WITH A 
RIDGE EXTENDING SEWD TO NEAR 20N109W. FRESH ANTICYCLONIC WINDS  
ARE FORECAST AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE THROUGH THE 
WEEKEND...WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS OF 5-7 FT. THE GRADIENT WILL 
TIGHTEN NE OF THE RIDGE ON SUN NIGHT...INCREASING THE N WINDS TO 
20-25 KT NEAR 30N125W EARLY ON MON...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT 
ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 122-126W. 

SEAS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD TO 8 FT IN MIXED SE AND SWELL TONIGHT 
OVER THE FAR SRN PART OF THE AREA...S OF 03S BETWEEN 9W4 AND 
136W AND EXPAND N TO 06N BY 48 HOURS. AFTERWARDS...THESE SWELLS 
WILL THEN BEGIN TO MERGE WITH NORTHERLY SWELL FROM AMANDA GOING 
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
 
$$
STRIPLING