000
AXPZ20 KNHC 241032
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT MAY 24 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE... 

TROPICAL STORM AMANDA IS CENTERED NEAR 11.4N 109.6W 994 MB AT 
0900 UTC MAY 24...MOVING WNW OR 295 DEG AT 04 KT. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT NEAR CENTER. DEEP 
CONVECTION OF THE NUMEROUS STRONG TYPE INTENSITY DEVELOPED 
DURING THE NIGHT OVER AND AROUND THE CENTER IMPLYING CENTRAL 
DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) FEATURE. THIS CONVECTION EXTENDS 60 NM FROM 
THE CENTER...EXCEPT 90 NM IN THE W QUADRANT. AN OUTER CONVECTIVE 
BAND FEATURE IS N OF THE CENTER CONSISTING OF SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 105W 
AND 110W.

AMANDA IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN INTO A MINIMAL HURRICANE THIS 
AFTERNOON...THEN CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN TO AN 85 KT HURRICANE 
DURING SUN...AND TO 90 KT BY LATE SUN NIGHT. AMANDA IS THEN 
FORECAST TO WEAKENING BACK TO A MINIMAL HURRICANE LATE ON MON. 
SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AT  
07N78W...THEN TURNS NW TO 10N83W AND CONTINUES TO 07N94W TO 
09N102W WHERE THE TROUGH LOSES IDENTITY IN THE BROAD CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH STRENGTHENING TROPICAL STORM AMANDA. 
THE MONSOON TROUGH THEN RESUMES SW OF AMANDA NEAR 09N112W...AND 
CONTINUES SW TO 07N123W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A 
TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ AXIS. THE ITCZ CONTINUES SW TO 05N131W TO 
BEYOND 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IN 
CLUSTERS IS ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 93W AND 102W..AND S 
FROM THERE TO 02N. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALONG THE TROUGH 
BETWEEN 86W AND 90W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                       

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE 
DISCUSSION NEAR 32N137W. ANOTHER UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE 
DEEP TROPICS AT 06N128W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING NE TO A 
SHARP CREST NEAR 13N116W. AN UPPER CYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 
22N135W WITH THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SSE TO A 
BASE NEAR 10N125W. A DEBRIS MOISTURE PLUME FROM ITCZ CONVECTION 
W OF 140W IS BEING ADVECTED NEWD IN STRONG UPPER SW WINDS FOUND 
ACROSS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THE MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDS FROM 
13N TO 21N BETWEEN 120W AND 132W.

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER SW ARIZONA WITH AN UPPER 
TROUGH EXTENDING SE TO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. UPPER 
MOISTURE IS ROTATING CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE CYCLONE WITHIN 
ABOUT 240 NM OF ITS CENTER AND JUST ACROSS THE THE NRN GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA. 

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS IDENTIFIED TO THE E OF THE TROPICAL 
STORM AMANDA NEAR 12N105W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING W ACROSS THE 
TROPICAL STORM TO A CREST AT 12N115W. ASSOCIATED UPPER 
DIFFLUENCE IS HELPING TO SUSTAIN THE RECENT INCREASE OBSERVED 
WITH THE CONVECTION. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM AMANDA...AND OTHER 
CONVECTION BETWEEN 100-112W...IS BEING ADVECTED NEWD ALONG THE
WRN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO.

AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES SW ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TO A 
BASE OVER PANAMA. CONVECTION EARLIER NOTED ALONG THE BASE OF 
THIS UPPER TROUGH AND THE LOWER LEVEL MONSOON TROUGH IS 
DECREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CLUSTERS OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM 03N TO 
06N BETWEEN 78W AND 83W. UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE IS SPREADING S TO 
NEAR THE EQUATOR E OF 88W. 
 
THE 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A 1027 MB HIGH CENTER AT 
33N137W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SEWD TO 23N125W...AND TO 20N114W. 
ANTICYCLONIC WINDS OF FRESH INTENSITY ARE FORECAST AROUND THE 
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH ASSOCIATED 
SEAS OF 5-7 FT. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN NE OF THE RIDGE ON SUN 
NIGHT...INCREASING THE N WINDS TO 20-25 KT NEAR 30N125W EARLY ON 
MON...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 28N 
BETWEEN 122-126W. 

SEAS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD TO 8 FT IN MIXED SE AND SWELL TONIGHT 
OVER THE FAR SRN PART OF THE AREA...S OF 02S BETWEEN 109W AND 
122W. BY 36 HRS...THIS AREA WILL EXPAND N TO 06N AND BETWEEN 
100W AND 112W. AFTERWARDS...THESE SWELLS WILL THEN BEGIN TO 
MERGE SOME WITH WITH THOSE FROM AMANADA GOING INTO EARLY NEXT 
WEEK.
 
$$
AGUIRRE