000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240242
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT MAY 24 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE... 

TROPICAL STORM AMANDA IS CENTERED NEAR 11.2N 109.1W 1000 MB AT 
0300 UTC MAY 24...MOVING WNW OR 290 DEG AT 04 KT. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT NEAR CENTER. 
CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING WITH NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION 
OBSERVED WITHIN 90 NM OVER THE N AND W QUADRANTS OF CENTER. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ELSEWHERE 
WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14N108W TO 07N109W. 

AMANDA IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN LATER TONIGHT REACHING MINIMAL 
HURRICANE STRENGTH ON SAT...THEN CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN TO AN 85 
KT HURRICANE LATE SUN...WEAKENING TO A TROPICAL STORM AGAIN ON 
WED. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AT  
07N78W TO 07N83W...THEN TURNS SLIGHTLY NW TO 09N104W WHERE THE 
MONSOON TROUGH LOSES IDENTITY IN THE BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
ASSOCIATED WITH STRENGTHENING TROPICAL STORM AMANDA. THE MONSOON 
TROUGH THEN RESUMES SW OF AMANDA NEAR 05N112W...AND CONTINUES NW 
TO 07N123W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN 
ITCZ AXIS. THE ITCZ CONTINUES SW TO 04N129W...THEN TURNS NW TO 
BEYOND 07N140W.

SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG  
THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 
05N99W TO 11N103W. ISOLATED MODERATE AND STRONG CONVECTION IS 
OBSERVED ELSEWHERE FROM 02-11N BETWEEN 17-104W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                       

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE 
DISCUSSION NEAR 32N137W. ANOTHER UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE 
DEEP TROPICS AT 06N128W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING NE TO A 
SHARP CREST NEAR 13N116W. UPPER CYCLONES ARE CENTERED NEAR 
22N136W AND 20N146W WITH THE MEAN AXIS OF AN UPPER TROUGH 
EXTENDING S TO A BASE AT 10N136W. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM FORMER 
ITCZ CONVECTION IS ADVECTED NE WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF A 
LINE FROM 11N136W TO 24N110W.    

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER SW ARIZONA WITH AN UPPER 
TROUGH EXTENDING SE TO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. UPPER 
MOISTURE IS ROTATING CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE CYCLONE WITHIN 
ABOUT 240 NM OF CENTER AND JUST ACROSS THE THE NORTHERN GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA. 

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS E OF THE TROPICAL STORM AMANDA NEAR 
10N101W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING W ACROSS THE TROPICAL STORM TO A 
CREST AT 12N115W WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE ENHANCING THE RECENT 
INCREASE IN CONVECTION. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM AMANDA...AND OTHER 
CONVECTION BETWEEN 100-112W...IS ADVECTED NE ALONG THE W 
PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO.

AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES SW ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TO A 
BASE OVER PANAMA. CONVECTION IS ENHANCED ALONG THE BASE OF THIS 
UPPER TROUGH AND THE LOWER LEVEL MONSOON TROUGH AS PREVIOUSLY 
MENTIONED...BUT IS CURRENTLY DECAYING. MOST OF THE DEBRIS 
MOISTURE IS ADVECTED S...CURRENTLY REACHING ALONG 02N BETWEEN
79-88W. 
 
A 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 32N136W WITH A RIDGE 
EXTENDING SE TO 19N109W. ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE FORECAST 
AT 15-20 KT AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE THROUGH THE 
WEEKEND...WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS OF 5-7 FT. THE GRADIENT WILL 
TIGHTEN NE OF THE RIDGE ON SUN NIGHT...INCREASING THE N WINDS TO 
20-25 KT NEAR 30N125W BY SUNRISE ON MON...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8
FT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 122-126W. 
 
$$
NELSON