000
AXPZ20 KNHC 232156
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI MAY 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE... 

TROPICAL STORM AMANDA IS CENTERED NEAR 11.0N 108.8W 1005 MB AT 
2100 UTC MAY 23...MOVING WNW OR 290 DEG AT 03 KT. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT NEAR CENTER. 
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED OVER THE NE QUADRANT 
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS NOTED ELSEWHERE OVER THE N SEMICIRCLE WITHIN 120 
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N105W TO 11N110W. SIMILAR 
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED S OF THE CENTER WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF A LINE FROM 11N108W TO 06N108W. 

AMANDA IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND SAT 
REACHING MINIMAL HURRICANE STRENGTH ON SUN...THEN MAINTAIN 
HURRICANE STRENGTH THROUGH TUE...WEAKENING TO A TROPICAL STORM 
AGAIN ON WED. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AT  
07N78W TO 07N82W...THEN TURNS NW TO 09N103W WHERE THE MONSOON 
TROUGH LOSES IDENTITY IN THE BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
ASSOCIATED TROPICAL STORM AMANDA. THE MONSOON TROUGH THEN 
RESUMES SW OF AMANDA NEAR 05N112W...AND CONTINUES NW TO 07N122W 
WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ 
AXIS. THE ITCZ CONTINUES SW TO 04N129W...THEN TURNS NW TO BEYOND 
06N140W.

SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG  
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 150 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07.5N78W TO 07N85W...AND IN A SINGLE CLUSTER 
WITHIN 120 NM OF 09N101W. ISOLATED MODERATE AND STRONG 
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ELSEWHERE FROM 02-16N BETWEEN 87-104W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED N OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 
75 NM OF 07.5N140W.

...DISCUSSION...                                       

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE FAR NW PORTION NEAR 32N138W. 
ANOTHER UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE DEEP TROPICS AT 07N127W 
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING N TO A SHARP CREST NEAR 10N118W. 
UPPER CYCLONES ARE CENTERED NEAR 22N137W AND 20N143W WITH AN 
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S TO A BASE AT 10N137W. DEBRIS MOISTURE 
FROM FORMER ITCZ CONVECTION IS ADVECTED NE WITHIN 240 NM EITHER
SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12N137W TO 22N112W.    

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER SW ARIZONA WITH AN UPPER 
TROUGH EXTENDING SE ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. UPPER 
MOISTURE IS NOTED E OF THE CYCLONE OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO. 
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS E OF THE TROPICAL STORM AMANDA NEAR 
11N103W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING W ACROSS THE TROPICAL STORM TO A 
CREST AT 12N115W. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM AMANDA...AND OTHER 
CONVECTION BETWEEN 100-112W...IS ADVECTED NE ALONG THE W 
PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE...REMAINING AND E OF THE UPPER 
TROUGH AND IS CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO.
 
AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES SW ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TO A 
BASE OVER PANAMA. CONVECTION IS ENHANCED ALONG THE BASE OF THIS 
UPPER TROUGH AND THE LOWER LEVEL MONSOON TROUGH AS PREVIOUSLY 
MENTIONED. MOST OF THE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED 
SW...CURRENTLY REACHING NEAR 03N82W. 
 
A 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 32N136W WITH A RIDGE 
EXTENDING SE TO 19N109W. ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE FORECAST 
AT 15-20 KT AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE THROUGH THE 
WEEKEND...WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS OF 5-7 FT. THE GRADIENT WILL 
TIGHTEN NE OF THE RIDGE ON SUN NIGHT...INCREASING THE N WINDS TO 
20-25 KT NEAR 30N125W BY SUNRISE ON MON WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 
FT. 
 

$$
NELSON