000
AXPZ20 KNHC 231608 RRA
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI MAY 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

SATELLITE PHOTOS AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM LATE THIS 
MORNING SUGGEST THAT THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE EASTERN 
PACIFIC IS GAINING IMPROVED ORGANIZATION AND STRENGTH...AND HAS 
RECENTLY BEEN UNGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM AMANDA...THE FIRST 
TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2014 EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON. AT 1500 
UTC...AMANDA WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 108.4W 1005 MB MOVING WNW OR 
295 DEG AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. 
AN ELONGATED AREA OF STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHES 
NORTH TO SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH AMANDA...AND EXTENDS WITHIN 360 
NM NE AND 450 NM SE OF THE CENTER OF AMANDA. AMANDA IS EXPECTED 
TO MOVE SLOWLY NW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND REMAIN IN A 
FAVORABLE UPPER ENVIRONMENT TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY...AND IS 
FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN 72 HOURS. BEYOND 
THAT TIME FRAME...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST AMANDA WILL TURN MORE 
NORTH NORTHWEST AND MOVE TOWARDS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA NEXT WEEK.
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N77W TO 09N87W TO 07N97W TO 
08N103W...WHERE IT HAS SEVERED FROM AMANDA...THEN RESUMES W OF 
AMANDA FROM NEAR 10N116W TO 10.5N120W TO 08N124W WHERE IT 
TERMINATES. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N125W TO 04N127W TO 06N136W 
TO BEYOND 06N140W. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH E OF 87W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 180 
NM N OF ITCZ W OF 133W. BROKEN SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED WITHIN 240 
NM OF THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA...BETWEEN 89W AND 102W.

...DISCUSSION...                                       

BROAD UPPER RIDGING COVERS THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA WITH A 
CREST REACHING WELL NE OF THE AREA. A SMALL UPPER CYCLONE HAS 
JUST MOVED INTO THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA NEAR 
22N141W...AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY VERY DRY UPPER AIR AS NOTED ON 
SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. 

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE TROPICS NEAR 12N100W WITH AN 
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING N-NE ACROSS E MEXICO AND OVER THE FAR 
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS W ACROSS TROPICAL 
STORM AMANDA...AND CONTINUES TO VENTILATE THE ASSOCIATED DEEP 
CONVECTION. CONVECTION IS ALSO BEING ENHANCED ELSEWHERE UNDER 
THE ANTICYCLONIC ENVELOPE OVER THE PACIFIC E OF 95W. 

AN UPPER TROUGH IS POSITIONED BETWEEN THESE UPPER ANTICYCLONES 
WITH ITS MEAN AXIS...ORIGINATING FROM AN UPPER CYCLONE ALONG THE 
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA-NEW MEXICO BORDER...AND EXTENDS S TO NEAR 
THE S TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. 
 
A 1025 MB HIGH IS ANALYZED AT 32N137W WITH A RIDGE STRETCHING TO 
NEAR 20N110W. HIGH PRES IS PRESENT TO THE N OF 15N AND W OF 114W.
 
SURFACE WINDS ARE FORECAST AT 15-20 KT AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF 
THIS RIDGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...EXCEPT OVER THE NW 
SEMICIRCLE OF THE TROPICAL STORM.  

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE NOCTURNAL NORTHERLY DRAINAGE FLOW WILL 
MAX AT ABOUT 15 KT AGAIN TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN TO A 10 KT MAX 
EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

$$
STRIPLING