000 AXPZ20 KNHC 231001 RRA TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC FRI MAY 23 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0930 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E IS CENTERED NEAR 10.8N 108.2W 1006 MB AT 0900 UTC MAY 22...MOVING WNW OR 295 DEG AT 04 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT JUST NE OF THE CENTER. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ALTHOUGH A BROAD CIRCULATION IS NOTED WITH THE DEPRESSION...ITS OVERALL CLOUD STRUCTURE APPEAR RATHER DISORGANIZED AS IT REMAINS UNDER SOUTHERLY SHEAR. DEEP CONVECTION NOTED IS NOT ORGANIZED INTO ANY NOTICEABLE BANDING FEATURE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 300 NM NE AND 120 NM SE QUADRANTS OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM SW QUADRANT...AND ALSO WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 06N109W TO 08N112W. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY WNW OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS WHILE GRADUALLY REACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED OVER COLOMBIA AT 07N74W WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING NW ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF PANAMA TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA RICA AT 10N85W TO 07N98W TO 09N105W WHERE THE MONSOON TROUGH LOSES IDENTITY IN THE BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE MONSOON TROUGH REFORMS AT 13N118W...AND CONTINUES SW TO 09N124W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE AN ITCZ AXIS FORMS AND CONTINUES WESTWARD TO BEYOND 09N140W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE NOTED ALONG...AND WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER AND TO THE S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N89W TO 05N97W TO 04N104W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS DECAYING ALONG THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE ITCZ FROM 04N-10N W OF 133W. ...DISCUSSION... BROAD UPPER RIDGING COVERS THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA WITH A CREST REACHING WELL NE OF THE AREA. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE DEEP TROPICS AT 07N135W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING NEWD TO NEAR 23N128W. A RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS E FROM THIS ANTICYCLONE TO NEAR 10N120W. ALTHOUGH THIS UPPER RIDGE IS IN PHASE WITH THE LOWER LEVEL ITCZ...IT SEEMS TO ONLY SLIGHTLY ENHANCE CONVECTION AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE APPEARS THIN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...BUT HAS SPREAD NEWD TO NEAR 16N115W WHERE IT IS MERGING WITH ANOTHER PLUME OF MOISTURE DESCRIBED BELOW. A SMALL UPPER CYCLONE HAS JUST MOVED INTO THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA NEAR 23N138W. IT IS ACCOMPANIED BY VERY DRY UPPER AIR AS MOTED ON SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE TROPICS NEAR 14N101W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS SE MEXICO AND OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS SW ACROSS TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E TO A SHARP CREST AT 10N121W...AND IS SUPPORTING THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AND IS REINFORCED BY ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION OVER N CENTRAL MEXICO...WITH THIS TROPICAL PLUME CURRENTLY FEEDING INTO CONVECTION OVER EASTERN TEXAS. CONVECTION IS ALSO ENHANCED ELSEWHERE UNDER THE ANTICYCLONIC ENVELOPE OVER THE PACIFIC BETWEEN 89W-112W AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE REMAINING WITHIN THE SAME AREA. AN UPPER TROUGH IS POSITIONED BETWEEN THESE UPPER ANTICYCLONES WITH ITS MEAN AXIS...ORIGINATING FROM AN UPPER CYCLONE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...EXTENDING S ALONG 32N115W TO 16N117W. UPPER MOISTURE IS NOTED E OF THE CYCLONE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND PORTIONS OF ARIZONA. OTHERWISE...THE UPPER LEVELS APPEAR VERY DRY N OF 23N W OF 111W. A 1026 MB HIGH IS ANALYZED AT 32N139W WITH A RIDGE STRETCHING THROUGH 27N129W TO 23N121W TO NEAR 20N113W. HIGH PRES IS PRESENT TO THE N OF 15N AND W OF 114W. SURFACE WINDS ARE FORECAST AT 15-20 KT AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...EXCEPT OVER THE NW SEMICIRCLE OF THE TROPICAL STORM. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE NOCTURNAL NORTHERLY DRAINAGE FLOW WILL MAX AT ABOUT 15 KT AGAIN TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN TO A 10 KT MAX EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. $$ AGUIRRE