000 AXPZ20 KNHC 230240 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC FRI MAY 23 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E CENTERED NEAR 10.6N 107.8W 1007 MB AT 300 UTC MAY 22...MOVING WNW OR 290 DEG AT 04 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT NEAR CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY OBSERVED OVER E SEMICIRCLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.5N106.5W TO 04N105W...AND OVER THE SW QUADRANT WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 09N107W TO 05N113W. ONE- E IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN REACHING TROPICAL STORM FORCE EARLY FRI AND CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN TO A 60 KT TROPICAL STORM LATE MON THROUGH TUE. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A 1004 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED OVER COLOMBIA AT 07N74W WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING NW ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF PANAMA TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA RICA AT 10N85W TO 07N95W TO 09N101W WHERE THE MONSOON TROUGH LOSES IDENTITY IN THE BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE MONSOON TROUGH REFORMS JUST SW OF A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW AT 13.5N117W...AND CONTINUES SW TO 09N127W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE AN ITCZ AXIS FORMS AND CONTINUES WESTWARD TO BEYOND 09N140W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE NOTED ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 78W-91W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER AND TO THE S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N89W TO 05N97W TO 07N106W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS DECAYING ALONG THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE ITCZ FROM 04-10N W OF 133W. THE LOW PRESSURE NEAR 13.5N117W IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUASI- STATIONARY TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY LOSE IDENTITY IN THE MONSOON TROUGH ON FRI. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE FAR NW PORTION 30N138W. ANOTHER UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE DEEP TROPICS AT 07N135W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING N TO A GENTLE CREST NEAR 23N129W. A RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS E FROM THIS ANTICYCLONE TO NEAR 10N120W. ALTHOUGH THIS UPPER RIDGE IS IN PHASE WITH THE LOWER LEVEL ITCZ...IT SEEMS TO ONLY SLIGHTLY ENHANCE CONVECTION AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE APPEARS THIN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...BUT HAS SPREAD NE TO NEAR 17N115W WHERE IT IS MERGING WITH ANOTHER PLUME OF MOISTURE DESCRIBED BELOW. AN UPPER CYCLONE CONTINUES JUST W OF THE AREA NEAR 21N141W...AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY VERY DRY UPPER AIR. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE TROPICS NEAR 11N101W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING NE ACROSS SE OLD MEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS SW ACROSS TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E TO A SHARP CREST AT 11N116W...AND IS SUPPORTING THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NE ALONG THE W PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AND IS REINFORCED BY ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION OVER N-CENTRAL OLD MEXICO...WITH THIS TROPICAL PLUME CURRENTLY FEEDING INTO CONVECTION OVER EASTERN TEXAS. CONVECTION IS ALSO ENHANCED ELSEWHERE UNDER THE ANTICYCLONIC ENVELOPE OVER THE PACIFIC BETWEEN 89-111W AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE REMAINING WITHIN THE SAME AREA. AN UPPER TROUGH IS POSITIONED BETWEEN THESE UPPER ANTICYCLONES WITH ITS MEAN AXIS...ORIGINATING FROM AN UPPER CYCLONE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...EXTENDING S ALONG 32N115W TO 16N117W. UPPER MOISTURE IS NOTED E OF THE CYCLONE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND PORTIONS OF ARIZONA. OTHERWISE...THE UPPER LEVELS APPEAR VERY DRY N OF 23N W OF 111W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N135W TO 20N114W. ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE FORECAST AT 15-20 KT AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...EXCEPT OVER THE NW SEMICIRCLE OF THE TROPICAL STORM. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE NOCTURNAL NORTHERLY DRAINAGE FLOW WILL MAX AT 15 KT TONIGHT AND EACH NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...THEN WEAKEN TO A 10 KT MAX EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. $$ NELSON