000 AXPZ20 KNHC 222149 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC THU MAY 22 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E FORMED NEAR 10.3N 107.4W 1007 MB AT 2100 TC MAY 22...MOVING W-NW OR 285 DEG AT 03 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT NEAR CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED OVER E THE SEMICIRCLE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14N107W TO 05N108W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER THE SW QUADRANT OF THE CENTER WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 09N108W TO 04N113W. ONE-E IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN TONIGHT REACHING TROPICAL STORM FORCE ON FRI AND MAINTAIN THAT STRENGTH THROUGH TUE. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED ON THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 10N75W WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING SW ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA TO 07N77W...THEN TURNS W TO 06.5N79W...THEN NW TO 10N85W. THE MONSOON TROUGH THEN TURNS SW TO 07N95W...THEN NW AGAIN THROUGH TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E TO ANOTHER EMBEDDED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT 14N117W. SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE AN ITCZ AXIS FORMS SW OF THE LOW AT 14N117W...AND CONTINUES SW THROUGH 12N119W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER AND TO THE S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 09N84W TO 04N98W TO 08N102W...AND OVER AND N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10N87W TO 13N92W...AND IN A CLUSTER WITHIN 45 NM OF 13N100W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER AND ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 09N125W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED S OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 03N134W TO 06N140W. THE LOW PRESSURE NEAR 13N117W IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUASI- STATIONARY AND GRADUALLY LOSE IDENTITY IN THE MONSOON TROUGH ON FRI. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE FAR NW PORTION 30N137W. ANOTHER UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE DEEP TROPICS AT 07N135W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING N TO A GENTLE CREST NEAR 22N130W. A RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS E FROM THIS ANTICYCLONE TO NEAR 10N118W AND IS IN PHASE WITH THE LOWER LEVEL ITCZ...BUT SEEMS TO ONLY SLIGHTLY ENHANCE CONVECTION AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE APPEARS THIN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...BUT HAS SPREAD NE TO NEAR 17N120W. OF NOTE IS AN UPPER CYCLONE THAT HAS FORMED JUST W OF THE AREA NEAR 21N143W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE TROPICS NEAR 14N100W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING NNE ACROSS SE OLD MEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS SW ACROSS TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E AND IS SUPPORTING THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NE ALONG THE W PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND IS REINFORCED BY ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE MOISTURE OVER INTERIOR OLD MEXICO...WITH THIS TROPICAL PLUME CURRENTLY FEEDING INTO CONVECTION OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO. CONVECTION IS ALSO ENHANCED ELSEWHERE UNDER THE ANTICYCLONIC ENVELOPE OVER THE PACIFIC BETWEEN 89-110W AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE REMAINING WITHIN THE SAME AREA. AN UPPER TROUGH IS POSITIONED BETWEEN THESE UPPER ANTICYCLONES WITH ITS MEAN AXIS FROM 32N115W TO 10N118W. A NARROW BAND OF UPPER MOISTURE IS NOTED JUST E OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA...SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND PORTIONS OF ARIZONA. OTHERWISE...THE UPPER LEVELS APPEAR VERY DRY N OF 22N W OF 113W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N135W TO 20N114W. ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE FORECAST AT 15-20 KT AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...EXCEPT OVER THE NW SEMICIRCLE OF THE TROPICAL STORM. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE NOCTURNAL NORTHERLY DRAINAGE FLOW WILL MAX AT 15 KT TONIGHT AND EACH NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...THEN WEAKEN TO A 10 KT MAX EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. $$ NELSON