000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220223
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU MAY 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0215 UTC. 
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 
11N75W TO 10N80W THEN TURNS SW ACROSS THE PANAMA AND COSTA RICA 
BORDER TO 09N95W...THEN NW TO AN EMBEDDED 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE 
AT 11N105W...THEN SW TO 10N110W...THEN NW TO ANOTHER 1011 MB 
EMBEDDED LOW PRESSURE AT 14N118W. SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE 
AN ITCZ AXIS FORMS SW OF THE LOW AT 14N118W AND CONTINUES SW TO 
08N130W TO BEYOND 06N140W.

SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WELL S 
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM  
08N88W TO 04N92W TO 03N105W. SIMILAR CONVECTION SURROUNDS THE 
LOW PRESSURE AT 11N105W WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE FROM 08N105W TO 
13N108W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG CONVECTION 
IS OBSERVED WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N123W TO 
05N132W TO 07N135W TO 08N140W.   

THE LOW PRESSURE AT 11N105W IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT W-NW THROUGH  
THE WEEKEND WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING DEEPENING OF THE LOW 
NEAR 12N113W ON MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THE LOW PRESSURE NEAR 
14N118W IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY AND GRADUALLY 
LOSE IDENTITY IN THE MONSOON TROUGH.

...DISCUSSION...                                       

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE DEEP TROPICS AT 05N132W WITH AN 
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING TO 22N135W THEN THROUGH ANOTHER 
ANTICYCLONE AT 29N137W WITH THE RIDGE CONTINUING N BEYOND 
32N139W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ 
TO THE W OF 125W AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED. THE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS 
BEGINNING TO SPREAD NE ACROSS THE TROPICS TO THE S OF 22N W OF 
125W. SOME DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ALSO SPILLING E ACROSS THE RIDGE 
TO THE N OF 30N BETWEEN 132-137W.   
 
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE TROPICS AT 13N101W WITH AN 
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING N ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. 
CONVECTION IS ENHANCED UNDER THE ANTICYCLONIC ENVELOPE OVER THE 
PACIFIC BETWEEN 89-110W AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...WITH THE 
DEBRIS MOISTURE REMAINING WITHIN THE SAME AREA. AN UPPER TROUGH 
IS POSITIONED BETWEEN THESE UPPER RIDGES WITH ITS MEAN AXIS FROM 
32N117W TO 20N122W TO A BASE OVER THE DEEP TROPICAL PACIFIC AT 
09N120W. A NARROW BAND OF UPPER MOISTURE IS NOTED JUST E OF THE 
UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING NE FROM THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PENINSULA TO ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA. OTHERWISE...THE UPPER 
LEVELS APPEAR VERY DRY N OF 20N W OF 113W. DEBRIS MOISTURE 
COVERS THE UPPER LEVELS S OF 10N TO THE E OF 84W.
  
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N130W TO 17N112W. ANTICYCLONIC 
SURFACE WINDS ARE FORECAST AT 15-20 KT AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF 
THIS RIDGE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE NOCTURNAL NORTHERLY DRAINAGE FLOW WILL 
MAX AT 15 KT TONIGHT AND EACH NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...THEN 
WEAKEN TO A 10 KT MAX ON SAT NIGHT.

$$
NELSON