000
AXPZ20 KNHC 201521
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
1605 UTC TUE MAY 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 6N78W TO 8N90W TO A 1008 MB LOW PRES 
NEAR 8N103W TO 1008 MB LOW PRES 11N116W TO 8N120W. ITCZ FROM 
8N120W TO 4N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 
5N-10N BETWEEN 115W-133W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                 

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA. OTHERWISE A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 
115W-135W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE 
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS N OF 11N W OF 115W. AN UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 
12N96W N INTO NE MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING 
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION FROM 2N-7N E OF 83W.

A 1008 MB LOW PRES IS ANALYZED NEAR 8N103W. SCATTERED MODERATE  
CONVECTION IS NEAR THE LOW CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE 
EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS 
SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY W OR WNW.

SURFACE RIDGE IS N OF 13N W OF 110W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN 
THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES ALONG THE ITCZ IS PRODUCING A BELT OF 
15-20 KT TRADE WINDS FROM 8N-17N W OF 125W. PRES GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES ACROSS NW MEXICO WILL BRING A 
BRIEF INCREASE IN WINDS JUST OFF OF NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA N 
OF 29N E OF 116W. EXPECT NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITH SEAS LESS 
THAN 8 FT IN THAT AREA.

$$ 
DGS