000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200938
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
1005 UTC TUE MAY 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0815 UTC. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 11N96W TO A 1010 MB 
LOW PRES NEAR 11N102W TO 12N112W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES W OF A 1010 
MB LOW NEAR 12N115W FROM 11N117W TO 06N130W TO 06N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF 
COLOMBIA FROM 02N TO 07N E OF 80W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS FROM 07N TO 12N BETWEEN 93W AND 104W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 110W TO 114W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 09N 
BETWEEN 120W AND 135W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                                 

GAP WINDS...                                                 
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE STILL BLOWING ACROSS THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS 
CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WINDS. EXPECT THE WINDS TO BE 
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BY THIS EVENING. 

A 1010 MB LOW PRES IS ANALYZED ON THE SURFACE MAP NEAR 11N102W. 
CONVECTION IS A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED TO THE N OF THE LOW 
CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE 
FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 
SEVERAL DAYS WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 15N114W TO 10N115W. A 1010 MB LOW 
IS EMBEDDED ON THE TROUGH NEAR 12N115W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS NOTED MAINLY E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 11N-16N 
BETWEEN 110W TO 114W. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DRIFT WESTWARD 
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. 
 
A 1028 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NW OF AREA NEAR 38N139W EXTENDS A 
RIDGE SE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS TO NEAR 25N117W. PRES 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRES ALONG THE ITCZ IS 
PRODUCING A BELT OF MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS MAINLY S OF 
14N W OF 125W. THIS HIGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD. AS A 
RESULT...A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE MAINLY THE WATERS N 
OF 15N W OF 110W. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES 
ACROSS NW MEXICO WILL BRING A BRIEF INCREASE IN WINDS JUST OFF 
OF NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA N OF 29N E OF 116W. EXPECT NW WINDS 
OF 20-25 KT WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT IN THAT AREA.

$$ 
FORMOSA