000 AXPZ20 KNHC 200238 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC TUE MAY 20 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0215 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 09N87W TO A 1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR 08N102W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES W OF LOW CENTER FROM 07N104W TO 11N112W THEN W OF A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 09N118W TO 06N130W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG IS FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 99W AND 104W. SIMILAR CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ FROM 06N TO 8.5N BETWEEN 122W AND 136W. ...DISCUSSION... GAP WINDS... FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE STILL BLOWING ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WINDS. ONCE AGAIN...EXPECT PULSING WINDS OF 20-25 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH TUE MORNING. AFTER THAT TIME...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. EXPECT ALSO PULSING NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER FORMED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 07N102W ON MON. AT 0000 UTC...A 1009 MB LOW PRES IS ANALYZED ON THE SURFACE MAP NEAR 08N102W. CONVECTION IS A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED TO THE N OF THE LOW CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 15N112W TO 07N117W. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SOME INVERTED-V PATTERN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE WITH A PAIR OF LOW LEVEL SWIRLS ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED MAINLY E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 10N TO 15N TO 110W. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DRIFT WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AND A LOW CENTER MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. A 1027 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NW OF AREA NEAR 38N139W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS TO NEAR 22N112W. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRES ALONG THE ITCZ IS PRODUCING A BELT OF MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS MAINLY S OF 14N W OF 125W. THIS HIGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD. AS A RESULT...A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE MAINLY THE WATERS N OF 15N W OF 110W. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES ACROSS NW MEXICO WILL BRING A BRIEFLY INCREASE IN WINDS JUST OFF OF NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA ESPECIALLY N OF 29N E OF 116W. EXPECT NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT IN THAT AREA. LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL DOMINATES MOST OF THE REGION. THIS SWELL EVENT IS INTERACTING WITH WIND WAVES GENERATED BY THE TRADE WIND FLOW. ADDITIONAL PULSES OF SW SWELL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL WATERS. A NEW SW SWELL TRAIN WITH A LEADING EDGE PERIOD OF 18-19 SECONDS WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE FORECAST WATERS BY LATE TUE. $$ GR