000
AXPZ20 KNHC 192120
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
2205 UTC MON MAY 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO A 1009 MB LOW PRES 
NEAR 08N102W TO 07N108W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N120W TO 
06N130W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
06N TO 09N BETWEEN 100W AND 105W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 125W 
AND 130W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM S OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 130W AND 135W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 
06N W OF 138W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                 

GAP WINDS...                                                 
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE STILL BLOWING ACROSS THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS 
CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WINDS. ONCE AGAIN...EXPECT 
PULSING WINDS OF 20-25 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC  
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH TUE MORNING. AFTER THAT TIME...WINDS 
AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. EXPECT ALSO PULSING NE 
WINDS OF 15-20 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. 

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH 
NEAR 07N102W. A 1009 MB LOW PRES IS ANALYZED ON THE 1800 UTC 
SURFACE MAP. THIS LOW IS NOW PRODUCING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME 
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS 
WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 15N111W TO 07N115W. VISIBLE 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SOME INVERTED-V PATTERN IN 
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE WITH A COUPLE OF LOW LEVEL SWIRLS 
ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. A FEW SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON EITHER SIDE OF 
TROUGH WHICH IS FORECAST TO DRIFT WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-36 
HOURS.
 
A 1025 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NW OF AREA NEAR 35N141W EXTENDS A 
RIDGE SE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS TO NEAR 24N115W. PRES 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRES ALONG THE ITCZ IS 
PRODUCING A BELT OF MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS MAINLY S OF 
13N W OF 125W. THIS HIGH IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH ANOTHER HIGH 
PRES CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39N140W IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. AS A 
RESULT...A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE MAINLY THE WATERS N 
OF 15N W OF 110W. 
 
LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL DOMINATES MOST OF THE 
REGION. THIS SWELL EVENT IS INTERACTING WITH WIND WAVES 
GENERATED BY THE TRADE WIND FLOW. ADDITIONAL PULSES OF SW SWELL 
CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL WATERS. A NEW SW 
SWELL TRAIN WITH A LEADING EDGE PERIOD OF 18-19 SECONDS WILL 
BEGIN TO IMPACT THE FORECAST WATERS BY LATE TUE.

$$ 
GR