000
AXPZ20 KNHC 191602
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
1605 UTC MON MAY 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1445 UTC. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 09N95W TO A 1009 MB 
LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 08N97W TO 08N101W TO 11N110W...
TO A 1008 LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 9N115W TO 07N120W.  
THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 07N120W TO 06N130W TO 05N135W BEYOND 
07N140W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 03N TO 
04N BETWEEN 78W AND 83W...FROM 05N TO 07N BETWEEN 83W AND 84W... 
FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 89W AND 90W...AND FROM 04N TO 07N 
BETWEEN 97W AND 103W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 
07N TO 10N BETWEEN 116W AND 118W...FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 100W 
AND 104W...AND FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 122W AND 140W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                                 

GAP WINDS...                                                 
WINDS ARE PULSING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS ACROSS THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC TODAY...FALLING TO LESS THAN 20 KNOTS FOR ABOUT 18 
HOURS OR SO...RETURNING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS IN 24 HOURS...AND 
FALLING TO LESS THAN 20 KNOTS AGAIN AT 48 HOURS INTO THE 
FORECAST PERIOD. 

A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 
08N115W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 116W AND 118W. THE LOW 
LEVEL CENTER IS NOT WELL-DEFINED. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS 
BECOMING LESS LIKELY DUE TO UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL 
CONDITIONS. 

A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 08N97W. THE GFS MODEL 
SUGGESTS THAT THIS LOW CENTER MAY DEEPEN AND MOVE TOWARD THE 
NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 
 
A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N133W TO 27N122W TO 21N115W. 
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT IS BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND 
LOWER PRESSURES THAT ARE ALONG THE ITCZ IS PRODUCING A BELT OF 
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS MAINLY FROM 09N TO 15N TO THE WEST 
OF 120W. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH 
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS LOCATED FARTHER TO THE 
NORTHWEST IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. 
 
$$ 
MT