000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190917
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
1005 UTC MON MAY 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0815 UTC. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 05N77W TO 08N90W TO A 1010 LOW 
PRES NEAR 10N103W TO 10N110W TO A SECOND 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 
08N114W TO 07N117W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 07N117W TO 05N133W 
TO BEYOND 06N140W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE 
FROM 04N TO 11N BETWEEN 91W AND 100W...AND FROM 03N TO 10N 
BETWEEN 110W AND 140W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                 

GAP WINDS...                                                 
WINDS ARE PULSING TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE AID OF THE 
NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH TUE 
MORNING.

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS NOTED ALONG THE MONSOON 
TROUGH NEAR 09N113W. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE 
AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND TSTMS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT 
THE STRONGER CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED DURING THE LAST FEW 
HOURS. THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATES THAT WINDS 
HAVE DIMINISHED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THE LOW 
CENTER IN NO LONGER WELL DEFINED. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM 
SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT 
CONTINUES TO DRIFT WESTWARD. AFTER THAT TIME...ENVIRONMENTAL 
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL 
CYCLONE FORMATION. 

A SECOND LOW PRES IS ANALYZED ON THE 0600 UTC SURFACE MAP ALONG 
THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 10N103W. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST A 
DEEPENING LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING NW ACROSS THE OCEAN DURING THE 
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 
 
A 1026 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NW OF AREA NEAR 37N142W EXTENDS A 
RIDGE SE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS TO NEAR 27N120W. PRES 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRES ALONG THE ITCZ IS 
PRODUCING A BELT OF MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS MAINLY FROM  
09N-15N W OF 120W. THIS HIGH IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH ANOTHER 
HIGH PRES CENTER LOCATED FARTHER NW IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.  

$$ 
FORMOSA