000 AXPZ20 KNHC 190240 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC MON MAY 19 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0215 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 05N77W TO 07N90W TO A 1008 LOW PRES NEAR 08N99W TO 11N108W TO A SECOND 1008 MB LOW PRES NEAR 09N113W TO 06N124W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 06N124W TO 05N134W TO BEYOND 05N140W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 94W AND 96W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED ELSEWHERE FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN 92W AND 102W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM SE OF LINE FROM 10N111W TO 06N117W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04.5N TO 06N BETWEEN 120W AND 125W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 08.5N BETWEEN 128W AND 131W. ...DISCUSSION... GAP WINDS... FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE STILL BLOWING ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. THIS LATE-SEASON GALE FORCE GAP WIND EVENT IS ONE OF THE LATEST GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALES ON RECORD. IN FACT...THE NUMBER OF EVENTS THIS SEASON 2013- 2014...A TOTAL OF 33 EVENTS...HAS ESTABLISHED A NEW RECORD... SHATTERING THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 24 EVENTS WHICH OCCURRED IN THE 2003-04 AND 2011-12 SEASONS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PULSE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE AID OF THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW THROUGH TUE MORNING. EXPECT ALSO PULSING NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS NOTED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 09N113W. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND TSTMS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE STRONGER CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATES THAT WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THE LOW CENTER IN NO LONGER WELL DEFINED. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT CONTINUES TO DRIFT WESTWARD. AFTER THAT TIME...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. A SECOND LOW PRES IS ANALYZED ON THE 0000 UTC SURFACE MAP ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 08N99W. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST A DEEPENING LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING NW ACROSS THE OCEAN DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 12N136W TO 06N137W. THIS TROUGH SHOWS UP WELL AS A MOISTURE SURGE ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ANIMATION. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION EXISTS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD EXITING THE FORECAST AREA ON MON. A 1028 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NW OF AREA NEAR 35N142W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS TO NEAR 22N115W. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRES ALONG THE ITCZ IS PRODUCING A BELT OF MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS MAINLY FROM 09N-15N W OF 120W. THIS HIGH IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH ANOTHER HIGH PRES CENTER LOCATED FARTHER NW IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL DOMINATES MOST OF THE REGION. THIS SWELL EVENT IS INTERACTING WITH THE TEHUANTEPEC WIND WAVES TO PRODUCE A SMALL AREA OF 8 FT SEAS FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 95W AND 100W. ANOTHER AREA OF 8-9 FT SEAS IN SW SWELL IS NOTED FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 111W AND 121W. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT EARLY ON MON. ADDITIONAL PULSES OF SW SWELL ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE SOUTH-CENTRAL WATERS LATE ON MON FOLLOWED BY A NEW SW SWELL TRAIN WITH A LEADING EDGE PERIOD OF 18-19 SECONDS BY LATE TUE. $$ GR