000 AXPZ20 KNHC 182143 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SUN MAY 18 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 06N80W TO 08N87W TO 07N95W TO 11N108W TO A 1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR 09N113W TO 07N120W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 07N120W TO 08N135W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 93W AND 97W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 09N TO 14N BETWEEN 100W AND 105W...FROM 05N TO 11N BETWEEN 110W AND 120W...AND WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 131W AND 134W. ...DISCUSSION... GAP WINDS... FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE STILL BLOWING ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. THIS LATE-SEASON GALE FORCE GAP WIND EVENT IS ONE OF THE LATEST GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALES ON RECORD. IN FACT...THE NUMBER OF EVENTS THIS SEASON 2013- 2014...A TOTAL OF 33 EVENTS...HAS ESTABLISHED A NEW RECORD... SHATTERING THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 24 EVENTS WHICH OCCURRED IN THE 2003-04 AND 2011-12 SEASONS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PULSE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE AID OF THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW THROUGH TUE MORNING. EXPECT ALSO PULSING NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS NOTED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 09N113W. THIS LOW PRES OF 1009 MB IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND TSTMS...PARTICULARLY FROM 05N TO 11N BETWEEN 110W AND 120W. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS HELPING TO INDUCE THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATES THAT WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NOT WELL DEFINED. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT TIME. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 12N135W TO 04N138W. THIS TROUGH SHOWS UP WELL AS A MOISTURE SURGE ON THE TPW ANIMATION. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION EXISTS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD EXITING THE FORECAST AREA ON MON. A 1027 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NW OF AREA NEAR 35N142W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS TO NEAR 25N115W. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRES ALONG THE ITCZ IS PRODUCING A BELT OF MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES MAINLY BETWEEN 09N- 15N W OF 120W. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL DOMINATES MOST OF THE REGION. THIS SWELL EVENT IS INTERACTING WITH THE TEHUANTEPEC WIND WAVES TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF 8-9 FT SEAS FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 94W AND 100W. ANOTHER AREA OF 8-9 FT SEAS IS NOTED FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 94W AND 100W. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT ON MON. ADDITIONAL PULSES OF SW SWELL ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE SOUTH-CENTRAL WATERS LATE ON MON FOLLOWED BY A NEW SW SWELL TRAIN WITH A LEADING EDGE PERIOD OF 18-19 SECONDS LATE TUE. $$ GR