000
AXPZ20 KNHC 181529
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
1605 UTC SUN MAY 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 9N85W TO 6N95W TO A 1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR 
9N113W TO 6N122W. INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS FROM 6N122W 
TO 7N135W TO 5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 102W-119W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                 

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N128W TO 23N136W. 
EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN 127W-133W 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND 
UPPER LEVELS IS N OF 15N W OF 115W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS 
FROM NW MEXICO ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 22N124W. UPPER LEVEL 
DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 102W-119W.

NLY WINDS 20-25 KT CONTINUE THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH 
SEAS 8-9 FT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LAST UNTIL MON AFTERNOON. 
THIS WILL BRING TO AND END ONE OF THE LATEST GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
GALE EVENTS ON RECORD. 

SURFACE RIDGE IS N OF 15N W OF 115W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE ITCZ IS PRODUCING NE TRADEWINDS 10-15 
KT. THIS SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

A 1008 MB LOW AT 09N113W ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH HAS DIMINISHED 
CONVECTION AND INCREASED SOUTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR...THUS THE 
OPPORTUNITY FOR IT TO FURTHER DEVELOP ARE LIMITED.

$$ 
DGS